Taking The Fifth In Chase Breakdown

Taking The Fifth In Chase Breakdown



Guest Column by Cathy Elliott


I was talking to my dad on the phone recently, and mentioned that now that it's Week 1 of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, the time has come for me to jump on the ol' bandwagon and write a column predicting this year's winner.
"Who do you like?" he asked. So I told him, and he said, "Oh, don't say that in public, darlin'. That's bad. That won't win you any fans."
Really? What else is new?
Two things about this reaction really stand out. One, daddies in the South still call their grown daughters "darlin'," and two, if your very own daddy thinks it's a good idea to distance himself from your championship choice, you may be in more than a little bit of trouble with everyone else you know, and lots of folks you haven't met.
Who is this driver that will cause my credibility -- or what remains of it -- to take such a negative hit? He must be pretty bad, if picking him to win the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship will turn not just a handful of fans, but apparently all of America itself, against me.
I'm glad you asked. Let's talk about Kyle Busch. If bone-deep talent was enough to win races and championships, most of the other teams might just as well stay home and watch football every weekend as try to go up against KB.
I wasn't watching NASCAR during the early careers of drivers like David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt -- let's throw Cale Yarborough in there, too -- but I suspect fans' reaction to those guys when they first came on the scene was similar to what Kyle brings out in people. We cheer and we hiss, we laugh and we get mad, but mostly our jaws drop. I seriously believe that if NASCAR sanctioned hermit crab races, Kyle's entry would be the most aggressive crab on the circuit, sliming the other decapods out of the way with a well-timed flick of his gooey antennae. He's that good.
I would love to see Kyle take home the trophy. A young, controversial champion would be great for NASCAR, and Champion's Week would be absolutely rocking as Las Vegas celebrated a hometown hero.
But ... Kyle seems to have a knack for finding trouble on the track, and vice versa. A 10-week stretch of good behavior, good equipment and good luck seems questionable at this point. Multiple championships are in his future, but probably not this year.
Kyle's teammate Denny Hamlin won six races during the regular season, and has already publicly stated that he performs best under pressure. I like Hamlin; he's outspoken, and has "the look," the attitude, and the talent to back it all up. Joe Gibbs Racing gives him stellar equipment to work with every week. Hamlin has made the Chase every year since entering full-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competition, and says losing the championship so many times has helped him figure out how to win one. He's definitely a top contender.
But ... Hamlin has a tendency to be streaky, and consistency is crucial during the Chase. He'll most likely win one or more of the final 10 races, but other problems could offset those wins. He's mighty close, but I don't believe this is his year.
Speaking of consistency, let's talk about Kevin Harvick. It has been so long since any other driver led the regular season points that I can't even remember who it was, and Harvick won three races in the process. The Chase re-seeding dropped him to third place, but that's no big deal. He has convinced us that he knows how to hang onto a seat at the top. Harvick, or either of his teammates Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer, would be popular champions because none of the three has ever won the title, and fans would love to see a victorious Richard Childress celebrating up there on the stage. We like R.C.'s drivers; we LOVE him.
But ... when you get down to the nitty gritty, these three guys have the fire, but it doesn't seem to have blossomed into a real inferno. When we look at Harvick and get that twitchy feeling that maybe it's time to call for backup from the tanker truck, then he'll be a contender.
There are three Ford drivers -- Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth -- in the Chase field. They have combined for one win -- Biffle at Pocono Raceway -- headed into the Chase. Edwards wrapped up the regular season with a string of great finishes, managing to fall just short of Victory Lane several times.
But ... most experts say it's going to be difficult, if not impossible, to win the 2010 championship without winning at least one Chase race along the way. The Ford guys are going to have to improve on that 1-25 record (headed into New Hampshire) to have a legitimate shot at the title.
Tony Stewart was solid, but not stellar, this season, before getting his first and only win of the year (so far) at Atlanta. When the Chase field was set, he ended up pretty much where he's been all season -- in the middle of the pack.
But ... Stewart is a sneaky one. The two-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion has shown a 'sleepingiant' penchant for coming alive late in the year, when it really counts. He gives me pause.
So does 2004 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Kurt Busch, who some feel peaked early in the season. But ... Kurt is a methodical type of driver and that 'steady goes the race' mentality, combined with the aggressive driving style he doesn't always show, but definitely still has, could get the job done.
Four-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Jeff Gordon hasn't won a race this year, but still managed to finish the regular season second in the driver standings. If you believe Gordon isn't ravenous for that fifth title, go find a mama bear and her cub and stand between them, and see how that works out for you. That's how badly Gordon wants to win.
But ... there is another guy out there with four titles, and he is standing smack-dab in Gordon's way, and in the way of the 10 other guys in contention for the 2010 championship.
Which brings me to the driver I predict will win the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship.
Athletes and teams with five or more consecutive championships are a lonely bunch. UCLA men's college basketball has done it. So has tennis star Roger Federer (in the U.S. Open), the New York Yankees and the Chinese women's volleyball team. It is exceedingly rare, but it happens.
Jimmie Johnson has the experience needed to get the job done; four championships in a row will do that for you. He won five races during the regular season, second only to Hamlin. He has great records at most of the tracks in the Chase. He has Hendrick Motorsports' equipment and engineering know-how. He has confidence. He has Chad Knaus. Chad Knaus also has confidence.
Variety is a good thing, and although this year's championship might not be the best thing for the sport in general from that standpoint, Jimmie Johnson is still the man to beat.
I know it's a safe pick, and probably an unpopular one, since it made my own father disassociate from me.
But ... at least it's honest. All we can do now is wait and see.