Top 5 and 5 to watch: Dover

Top 5 and 5 to watch: Dover


By Roger Kuznia
Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service

Here's a look at the top five drivers in the Sprint Cup Series standings and five drivers to watch in Sunday's race at Dover International Speedway. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at Dover unless otherwise indicated. Driver rating is based on the past 11 races at the track.

1. Denny Hamlin, 77.5 driver rating. Behind only Daytona, Dover is Hamlin's worst track in terms of average finish—22.8 with two DNFs. However, he did have success there in May, finishing fourth for his first top 10 since 2007. With momentum of a second-place run at New Hampshire , it's not unreasonable to expect a strong finish.
2. Kevin Harvick, 75.2. He's the leader in top-five finishes this year, coming off his 12th of 2010 at New Hampshire . Interestingly, if Harvick finishes fifth in the final nine events, he wouldn't have enough points to have won any of the last three Chases. Wins are a must, but one likely won't come here for the No. 29. His average finish in the last nine Dover races is 19.0.
3. Kyle Busch, 101.6. Busch's best Chase finish came in 2007, the only year he's never had problems in one or both of the first two Chase races at New Hampshire and Dover. After pulling out a ninth-place finish last week at Loudon, Busch now may be just one race away from being a real contender. He won here in May.
4. Jeff Gordon, 90.0. His conservative strategy paid off at New Hampshire , where he climbed four spots in the standings. Gordon hasn't won at Dover since 2001, but he has had two poles in the last four Dover Chase races. But it remains an open question whether this team's experimentation the past two months will pay off.
5. Kurt Busch, 95.4. Working with old crew chief Pat Tryson, Busch led 99 laps in this race last year and finished fifth for only his sixth top 10 in 20 starts. Busch's performance has been largely hit or miss in the past nine races of 2010, and it's tough to predict a solid run for the No. 2 after misses at Richmond and New Hampshire .

5 to watch:

6. Jimmie Johnson, 113.8. He's led at least 81 laps in the last four races, and 225-plus in the last three. He may have won the race in May had he not sped on pit road, leading to comments from race winner Kyle Busch that the No. 18 got into Johnson's head. Drivers have long memories, and no doubt Johnson remembers what happened four months ago.
8. Greg Biffle, 112.2. After three straight subpar finishes entering Dover , it's time for Biffle to release the Kraken. That should happen, given that Dover has long been a Roush Fenway stronghold. Three of the top four in driver rating are Roushketeers, with Biffle at No. 2, Matt Kenseth No. 3 and Carl Edwards No. 4. Biffle has eight top 10s in the last nine races, including a win in the 2008 Chase. 10. Tony Stewart, 73.2. We can roast Stewart for pushing his gas mileage too far at Loudon, but who thought he would have made it to win the June race at Pocono last year? Stewart is too good to let one race faze him, and he does have three straight top 10s at the Monster Mile.
11. Matt Kenseth, 111.8. Dover is one place where Kenseth doesn't need security blanket Robbie Reiser to perform well. Kenseth has finished no worse than fourth in the last five races, and his lone win came in 2006. This is Kenseth's best shot at a Chase win, but after this, it's back to finishes between 10-15.
12. Clint Bowyer, 89.5. After Wednesday's slug to the solar plexus, which saw the No. 33 team lose 150 points for an illegal car at New Hampshire , it will be interesting to see how Bowyer and his team react. Bowyer has no top 10s in his last three starts, but he has qualified in the top 10 in three of the last four races. Bowyer has led only four laps in his career, the fewest of any Chase competitor.