Top 5 and 5 to watch: Fontana

Top 5 and 5 to watch: Fontana



By Bill Marx
Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service


1. Jimmie Johnson, 124.0 driver rating. This race has "top five" written all over it for Johnson. He has a track-record five wins and is tied with Jeff Gordon for most top fives with 10. Four of his wins and six of his top fives have been in the past seven races—and the lone non-top five is a ninth-place finish. Johnson’s career average finish is 5.5. There’s no reason to expect Johnson to falter Sunday.
2. Denny Hamlin, 87.6. Hamlin is winless with one top five in nine starts. He finished 29th in February and crashed out of last year’s Chase race and finished 37th. Hamlin’s average finish is 18.2. Not very promising.
3. Kevin Harvick, 91.5. Harvick finished second in February but has only two top fives in 16 starts. His average finish is 17.7. Are you seeing a pattern here? If the top three drivers hold to form, Johnson leaves California with a much bigger lead.
4. Carl Edwards, 102.3. Edwards, who has been on fire since July and has a 6.0 average finish in the past 12 races, has done very well at Fontana . He has a win and 10 top 10s—six top fives—in 12 starts. Couple his hot streak with his success at Fontana , and you have the foundation for Edwards’ first win since 2008. Even if he doesn’t win, it’s conceivable he moves up in the standings.
5. Jeff Gordon, 99.0. Gordon has finished second three times—including both races last year—since he picked up his third win in 2004. He is 58 points behind Johnson and needs a strong finish to keep pace or gain ground. Giving up ground Sunday is not an option.


Five to watch


6. Kurt Busch, 94.2. Busch has one win and has finished in the top 10 in half his 16 starts, but only four are top fives. Busch has finished fifth, eighth and sixth in his past three starts at Fontana and needs to extend that streak.
7. Kyle Busch, 102.4. Kurt’s little bro has almost the exact same stats: one win, four top fives and eight top 10s—but has done it in four fewer starts. The focus, however, is not how strong Kyle is at Fontana , but whether there will be Act II of his feud with David Reutimann. The vote here: No. Kyle is 80 points back, and he’s racing for a championship.
8. Greg Biffle, 99.0. Biffle re-energized the No. 16 team with his victory last week, moving from 140 points out of first to 85. Biffle finished 10th in February for his fifth top 10 in 15 starts. He also has a win and two second-place finishes. Roush Fenway cars are running strong, and Biffle should be able to translate that strength into a top finish.
9. Jeff Burton, 86.7. Burton might not be a part of the record pack of drivers less than 100 points out of the lead (positions 2-8), but he is close: He’s 101 points back. He is winless in 20 starts with six top fives, including a third in February. If he duplicates that effort, he will have done his job in California .
10. Tony Stewart, 96.8. Stewart is winless in 18 starts with 10 top 10s but only four top fiveStewart is 127 points back with seven races to go. If Sunday’s race, which at 400 miles is 100 miles shorter than last year, comes down to fuel mileage, don’t be surprised if Stewart gambles again. Because he came up short at New Hampshire , he needs a big day to make a big climb in the standings.