Wild-card scenarios may surprise you

The Cool Down Lap: Wild-card scenarios may surprise you

By Reid Spencer
Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service

(June 20, 2011)

NASCAR’s introduction of a new wild-card provision this season gave rise to a widely accepted piece of conventional wisdom, namely that it will take two victories to qualify for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup under the new rule.

As is often the case, however, conventional wisdom is suspect. In reality, one victory may be good enough to make the Chase—or none.

Here’s the Chase qualifying procedure in a nutshell: The top 10 drivers in the Cup standings earn guaranteed spots and start the Chase with a base of 2,000 points plus three points for each victory they earn in the first 26 races.

The final two Chase spots go to the drivers outside the top 10 with the most victories. They start the Chase with the 2,000-point base but no extra points for their win. Here’s the rub—in order to earn a wild-card berth, a driver must be no worse than 20th in the standings.

The tiebreaker for wild-card spots is a driver’s position in the standings. As its stands now, after Sunday’s Heluva Good 400 at Michigan, Jeff Gordon (12th in points with two victories) would claim one wild card spot. Because no other driver in positions 11-20 has a win, Tony Stewart (11th in points) would get the final Chase berth.

For argument’s sake, let’s say Gordon goes on a modest tear and knocks a winless driver—Ryan Newman or Clint Bowyer, perhaps—out of the top 10. It’s conceivable at this point that positions 11-20 would include 10 winless drivers—hardly the sort of scenario anyone expected when the wild-card provision was introduced.

In that case, the drivers in 11th and 12th would fill the last two Chase spots.

Here’s what adds credence to that possibility. This is the time of year when the stronger teams begin to separate themselves from the weaker teams, when the toll of the first 15 races begins to strain the resources of the also-rans. This is the time of year when the championship contenders begin in earnest to accumulate race wins.

That doesn’t leave a lot of room for surprise winners.

It’s also entirely possible that either Juan Pablo Montoya or Marcos Ambrose, two of NASCAR’s best road-course racers, could propel themselves into the Chase with victories at Sonoma or Watkins Glen—or both. Montoya, currently 15th in points, won at the Glen last year. Ambrose, 21st in points, had a victory at Sonoma in the bag until he stalled his car trying to save fuel under caution late in the race.

At the other end of the spectrum, Brad Keselowski and Regan Smith already have wins but aren’t in the top 20. Currently 29th, Smith would have to leap-frog the nine drivers ahead of him in the next 11 races, and that isn’t likely.

Keselowski, on the other hand, is 22nd in the standings, 12 points behind Martin Truex Jr. in 20th. Over the next 11 races, Keselowski will be clawing like mad to crack the top 20, because one win in 20th place may be enough to make the Chase.

There are other potential complications. A driver with a win could fall out of the top 10. At this point, ninth-place Denny Hamlin—Sunday’s winner at Michigan—is most vulnerable. Conversely, a driver in the 11-20 range other than Gordon could win a race. There’s plenty of talent in the second 10: Stewart, Greg Biffle, Mark Martin, Montoya, Paul Menard, AJ Allmendinger, David Ragan, Kasey Kahne and Truex.

The bottom line is that there are myriad possibilities as to how the wild-card format will play out. So don’t bank on the conventional wisdom that it will take two wins to make the Chase.

The beauty of the new system is that we won’t know the answer until the Sept. 10 night race at Richmond is over. We may well be watching a dozen drivers who have a chance to make the Chase by winning that race.