Surprise, Surprise: Unpredictable 2011 Rolls Into Final Four

Surprise, Surprise: Unpredictable 2011 Rolls Into Final Four

 

Four races remain in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ regular season. These final four events, which ultimately will decide which 12 drivers will race for the championship over the final 10 races, couldn’t look any different.

Up next, on Sunday, there’s the big two-mile Michigan International Speedway oval. On deck awaits the coliseum feel of Bristol Motor Speedway, a fast .533-mile oval most-recently conquered by Kyle Busch. In the hole is the 1.54-mile Atlanta Motor Speedway, often called the fastest track on the circuit. And finally, the cut-off for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, the .75-mile Richmond International Raceway.

After Richmond, the top 10 drivers are locked into the 12-driver Chase. Spots 11 and 12 go to those drivers outside the top 10 with the most wins, provided they are in the top 20.

Last Monday’s race at Watkins Glen International shook up the Wild Card picture a bit. The storylines piled high after that one, and steamroll into Michigan this weekend.

Chase Clinch scenarios: Four drivers have a mathematical chance of locking up Chase berths. Traditionally, Michigan is the scene of the first driver Chase clinch. Every Chase year (2004-Present) except 2004 and 2006 has seen a driver clinch a spot at Michigan. Kevin Harvick did it last year, and could do it again in 2011.

Leaving this weekend, a clinching driver has to have a 145-point lead over 11th place. Those who can mathematically clinch this weekend: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson and Harvick. Busch and Edwards are currently 118 points ahead of 11th. Johnson is 112 and Harvick is 104.

Then there’s a Wild Card clinch possibility: If Kyle Busch or Harvick win this weekend, either driver will have four victories, which will lock them into the Chase as at least one of the Wild Card spots.

Wild Card picture became cloudier: Just when a hobbled Brad Keselowski improbably won at Pocono for his second win of the season and put a grapple hold on a Wild Card spot, Marcos Ambrose goes out and makes things a little hazier.

Ambrose nabbed his first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victory on Monday at Watkins Glen. His 47-point day moved him to 22nd place, a single-point out of the top 20. Ambrose has yet to score a top-10 finish at Michigan, but finished 15th in each of last year’s races there. He was 23rd in last June’s stop.

The current Wild Card holders are Keselowski and Denny Hamlin. Hamlin dipped to 12th in the points standings after his 36th-place finish at Watkins Glen, but still maintains the edge over 15th place Paul Menard (one win, Indianapolis). The Wild Card tie-breaker is points position.

Season of competitive balance continues: A few factoids stemming from Ambrose’s victory: He’s the fifth different first-time winner this season. That’s the most first-time winners since 2002. He also became the 15 different winner this season, the most through 22 races since 2003. The Modern Era record for different winners in a season is 19 in 2001. Considering that there are six drivers who won last year that remain winless in 2011, that record could very well fall.

There are also the weekly on-track records to watch. There have been an average of 13 different leaders per race and an average of 29 lead changes per race – both marks are all-time series highs through 22 races.

 

With ‘Trap’ Race Behind, Earnhardt’s Chase Chances Brighten

 

For Dale Earnhardt Jr., this past week has been a case of one down, four to go.

Earnhardt, by his own definition a less-than-skilled road racer, “escaped” Watkins Glen International with a 15th-place finish. It not only solidified his hold on a qualifying berth for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup but boosted him a spot in the standings to ninth.

Earnhardt heads to Michigan International Speedway with a 36-point cushion over 11th-place Clint Bowyer. Only the Pure Michigan 400 and events at Bristol Motor Speedway, Atlanta Motor Speedway and Richmond International Raceway remain before the final 10 Chase qualifiers and Wild Cards are determined.

The best news after avoiding a Watkins Glen “trap” is that Earnhardt’s last victory came at Michigan International Speedway in 2008. He has also won at the other three remaining tracks.

By some measures, Earnhardt’s 2011 season has not been spectacular. But call it solid: he has already matched last year’s top-five finishes (three) and has one more top-10 finish (nine) than 2010’s total.

With a 21st-place finish in Michigan’s spring race, Earnhardt definitely has room for improvement in the Irish Hills. Statistically, however, Earnhardt has done well at MIS with six top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts. He also won a NASCAR Nationwide Series race there in 2006.

There’s also the Steve Letarte factor. Letarte, Jeff Gordon’s former crew chief, fielded a top-five finishing car in three of his last four Michigan races with the four-time NASCAR Sprint Cup champion. Gordon was second in both Michigan races in 2009.

 

Three Roush Fenway Drivers Could Use Some Michigan Momentum

 

Roush Fenway Racing couldn’t be returning to its home track, Michigan International Speedway, at a better time with three of its four teams needing a boost as qualifying for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup heads into its final four races.

Jack Roush has won 11 times at the track west of his Livonia, Mich. headquarters. He shares the track’s all-time win mark with NASCAR Hall of Fame inductee Glen Wood and the Wood Brothers.

Here’s the picture:

•           Carl Edwards desperately needs wins. He slipped from an outright hold on the NASCAR Sprint Cup lead at Watkins Glen International, ceding the spot to Kyle Busch, whose three victories (to Edwards’ one) equal nine bonus points when the Chase begins next month at Chicagoland Speedway. Though the two drivers are in a points tie, Busch owns the tie-breaker (victories).

•           Greg Biffle, a reliable winner and Chase qualifier over the past three seasons, currently is lacking on both counts. He’s 49 points out of 10th place in points and needing to pass three rivals. To make the Chase via the Wild Card, Biffle requires at least one win and maybe two over the next four races – and hope those ahead of him remain outside Victory Lane.

•           David Ragan appeared to have his ticket punched for a Wild Card after winning at Daytona in July, a victory he followed up with a top-10 finish at Kentucky. An untimely accident on the final lap at Watkins Glen, however, dropped the driver five points outside the top 20 making a solid finish at Michigan a necessity.

Edwards was the last Roush Fenway driver to win at Michigan in August 2008. Current drivers Biffle and Matt Kenseth each have won twice at the track. Kenseth, ranked a solid seventh with two wins overall and six top-10 finishes in his most recent nine starts, seems a lock to challenge for a second NASCAR Sprint Cup title.

 

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Etc. 

 

An adopted Michigan son, Desmond Howard, will be the Grand Marshall for Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400. The former Michigan Wolverine and current ESPN college football analyst celebrates an anniversary, as does ESPN NASCAR analyst Dale Jarrett. Their careers intertwine in a way – with Joe Gibbs as the common thread. Howard is celebrating the 20th anniversary of winning the Heisman Trophy for the University of Michigan. It’s also the 20th anniversary of Jarrett’s first career NSCS victory in 1991 for the Wood Brothers at Michigan. There’s the ESPN connection between the two, but there’s also this: Howard was selected by Joe Gibbs’ Washington Redskins in the 1992 NFL Draft and played for Gibbs in the final season of his first stint as Redskins coach. Gibbs and Jarrett would team up in 1993 for a Daytona 500 win. … Milestone Watch: Jimmie Johnson will make his 350th start and Kasey Kahne will make his 275th start. … A star was born and continues to shine: Dylan Kwasniewski scored his second consecutive win in NASCAR K&N Pro Series West a week after becoming the youngest winner in the 57-year history of the series. He won again at Montana Raceway Park on Saturday night. While Kwasniewski was capturing his second win, another teenager was already taking away one of his records. Cameron Hayley, who celebrated his 15th birthday on July 21, made his series debut to become the youngest driver to compete in the series. He then went on to finish second to Kwasniewski.