THE CHASE : TO TALLADEGA

Johnson Faces Talladega-Sized Climb

Jimmie Johnson, thanks to the fifth-worst finish of his Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ career (34th), now sits eighth in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series standings, 35 points behind leader Carl Edwards.

With any other driver, that would register a minor blip on the news radar. Bad finishes happen. Sometimes it’s just not your year.

But with Johnson, this is a bombshell, adding yet another chapter in the ongoing “Is He Done?” saga.

Face It, It’s Just Not His Chase

There are two reasons to believe Johnson won’t climb out of this hole.

1)         That famous luck that blankets Johnson? Gone. His statistics over the first five races would suggest that Johnson is dominating. Of course, that’s not the case. Through the first five Chase races, Johnson has a Driver Rating of 114.2, an Average Running Position of 6.5, 234 Fastest Laps Run and 395 laps led. All those figures rank first among Chase drivers.

2)         There are A) too many drivers ahead of him and B) those drivers ahead of him show little sign of faltering. Points leader Edwards has top-10 finishes in all five races, the only driver to do so. Second- and third-place Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth have each finished in the top 10 in four of the five Chase races. Only two drivers in the top eight have two finishes outside the top 15 in the Chase: Johnson and Brad Keselowski. Consistency from those ahead of him may end his unprecedented run.

It’s Not Over ’Til It’s Over, Especially With Johnson

There are three reasons to believe Johnson will climb out of this hole.

1)         Johnson’s current 35-point deficit roughly equates to 145 points in the “old” points system. With five races to go in 2006, Johnson overcame a deficit of 146 points to win his first championship.

2)         He can win races in bunches, especially in pressure packed situations like this one. In 2007, Johnson won four consecutive races – at this exact juncture.

3)         Talladega and Phoenix await. Talladega is the ultimate wild-card track (more on this in the note below). Phoenix, with its repave, is an unknown. Some called it a brand-new track after the test two weeks ago.

Points Lead In Peril As Series Heads To Dega?

Points leader Carl Edwards should just sit in his No. 99 Ford and wait until the race weekend begins. At the very least, he should avoid any statistics pertaining to Talladega Superspeedway.

There are two worries for Edwards going into this weekend, one personal, the other historical.

For one, Edwards’ statistics at Talladega pale in comparison to most other tracks. His Driver Rating of 67.8 makes Talladega his worst track in terms of the Loop Data stat (by the way: second-worst is Martinsville, which awaits on deck, at 81.1). His average finish of 20.9 also makes Talladega his worst track. Edwards has scored just four top-10 finishes in 14 starts, which includes four DNFs. He has led laps in seven different Talladega races, but never more than eight in any given event. A bit of optimism: Edwards is coming off a sixth-place finish in April, his best Talladega result since 2005.

Two, Chase points leaders have a varied history at Talladega. Recently, the points leader has thrived. In the last three Chases, the points lead – each time held by Jimmie Johnson – has grown after the Talladega race.

But prior to that, trouble. The breakdown:

-           In 2004, Jeff Gordon lost the points lead at Talladega after a 19th-place finish. Kurt Busch took over, and held on for the remainder of the season. That year, Talladega was the third race of the Chase.

-           In 2005, Johnson entered Talladega with a seven-point advantage over Rusty Wallace. After the race, in which he finished 31st, he trailed Tony Stewart by 82 points.

-           In 2006, Jeff Burton’s points lead shrank from 69 before Talladega to just six leaving it.

-           In 2007, Johnson again lost a points lead at Talladega. He went into the race with a six-point advantage over Jeff Gordon, and left trailing his teammate by nine.

Enough Is Enough: Junior Primed To End Drought

Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s winless drought is 124 races, but when the series hits Talladega Superspeedway, there’s a better-than-average chance that slide stops.

Earnhardt boasts a number of impressive statistics at the largest track in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competition. He won four consecutive races there from 2001-03, and five overall. He owns the top pre-race Driver Rating at Talladega – 92.7. And he has led at least two laps in each of the last 11 (and has led laps in 21 of his 23 Talladega starts).

One of Earnhardt’s best chances at ending the drought came last April at Talladega. He didn’t win, but he did help the driver who did. Earnhardt, who finished fourth, pushed Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson to victory that day. After the race, Johnson tried to give Earnhardt the checkered flag. Earnhardt refused the offer, opting to earn it at a later time. Is Sunday that time?

Hendrick, RCR Spring Performances Portend Talladega Milestones

Sunday’s Good Sam Club 500 could produce at least two milestones – especially if the race follows the form of April’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series event at Talladega Superspeedway in which Hendrick Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing swept each of the top-five finishing positions.

•           Hendrick Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing are vying to break the deadlock atop the all-time owner wins list at Talladega (11). Either Hendrick or RCR has won the most recent three Talladega races.

•           Hendrick Motorsports continues its bid for a 200th series victory.

•           Richard Childress Racing can score its 100th series victory.

Jimmie Johnson scored his second Talladega victory in the spring, besting RCR’s Clint Bowyer by a miniscule 0.002 seconds. Click here to download a photo of last April’s finish.

Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. flashed across the stripe in third and fourth, chased home by RCR’s Kevin Harvick. Bowyer, who failed to qualify for this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, is the defending winner of the Good Sam Club 500. Gordon (six Talladega wins), Earnhardt (five) and Harvick (one) all have visited Victory Lane at the Alabama track. Harvick also boasts this resilient Talladega statistic: Zero DNFs (did not finish) in 21 starts.

Talladega’s Good Sam Club 500 An ‘Opportunity Race’ For Spoilers

It’s a fact that letting a non-Chase qualifier win a race represents points left on the table for the 12 competitors battling for the NASCAR Sprint Cup championship.

At Talladega Superspeedway, not so much.

No driver will be holding anything back – especially on the final laps – but philosophically, a solid finish at the unpredictable Alabama track is the equivalent of a win at the other nine Chase tracks.

That’s why it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a “spoiler” go to Victory Lane following Sunday’s race. It’s happened before – three times since the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup format was instituted in 2004.

•           Jamie McMurray was the most recent non-Chase winner of Talladega’s fall race in 2009, edging Chase qualifier Kasey Kahne in a race that ended under caution.

•           Brian Vickers won in 2006 with Kahne, again, the runner-up finisher.

•           Dale Jarrett took the victory in 2005, the last of 32 wins scored by the 1999 NASCAR Sprint Cup champion.

Last year’s Sam’s Club 500, won by Clint Bowyer in a one-two finish with Richard Childress Racing teammate Kevin Harvick, saw three non-Chase qualifiers – Juan Pablo Montoya, David Reutimann and Joey Logano – finish among the top five.

After a record-tying 88 lead changes in last April’s Talladega race, the track has instituted a bonus plan this weekend: If there are 100 lead changes in Sunday’s race, the driver who takes the lead the most times will win an extra $100,000. … Rule changes to watch for this weekend: The size of the restrictor plate that teams will use to prepare and practice for the race will increase by 1/64 inch and is now going to be 57/64-inch diameter. This will provide the teams with an additional 7-10 horsepower. Additionally, the pressure relief valve on the cars' cooling system will be re-calibrated to reduce the pressure by approximately eight pounds per square inch from this past April's race at Talladega. … Milestone marker: Bobby Labonte will attempt to make his 650th series start – he is 16th on the all-time NSCS starts list. Juan Pablo Montoya will attempt to post his 200th NASCAR national series start and his 50th series top-10 finish, Ryan Newman will attempt to post his 50th series Coors Light pole, Kurt Busch will be going for his 25th series win, AJ Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose will attempt to post their 25th top-10 series finish each. … Honoring Hall of Famers: Two-time Daytona 500 champion Michael Waltrip owns 50 NASCAR Sprint Cup starts at Talladega Superspeedway, and this weekend he’ll be celebrating the induction of his brother Darrell Waltrip into the NASCAR Hall of Fame by racing a special brown-and-gold paint scheme similar to the Terminal Transport car Darrell drove in his first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Talladega on May 7, 1972.