No, it doesn’t look good. Five-time defending NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson now sits 50 points out of the lead after his second consecutive finish outside the top 20.
Those 50 points translate to roughly 208 points under the old points system. Since 1975, the inception of the current position-based points format, the largest deficit overcome with four races remaining was 144 points by Alan Kulwicki in 1992. In the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ era (2004-present), the largest deficit overcome with four races left was 53 points, by Johnson in 2007. That roughly equates to 13 points in the new points system.
So, it’s over, right? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? This is Jimmie Johnson we’re talking about. He – and his fans – have plenty of reasons to believe. Let’s count the ways…
Martinsville’s Up Next: In 19 Martinsville Speedway starts, Johnson has finished outside the top 10 only twice – his first time and his last time. In his career at NASCAR Sprint Cup’s shortest track, he has six wins and 1,616 laps led (he has eight triple-digit laps-led races at Martinsville). And his Driver Rating leads the series at 121.9. If Johnson doesn't win Sunday, it will be the first year since 2005 that he hasn't won a short-track race in a season.
Texas Is After That: Johnson boasts only one win at Texas (in 2007, when he made his big comeback to win his second championship), but has 12 top 10s in 16 starts.
And Phoenix Is After That: Phoenix’s repave may hurt Johnson more than any other driver. Johnson LOVED the old surface, scoring four wins overall. He comes into the race with 10 consecutive finishes in the top five (the record is 16, by Richard Petty at North Wilkesboro). Then again, the repave could help Johnson. Reviews from last month’s test said that the track is slick. Few drive a loose race car like the five-time champion.
Johnson Thrives On Adversity: Only one other time in the Chase has Johnson finished outside the top 20 in back-to-back races (2004). That time, he followed it up with three consecutive victories.
Roush Fenway Racing Packing 1-2 Punch
Roush Fenway Racing finds itself in an enviable position, occupying the top two spots in the Chase standings with four races remaining. Carl Edwards holds the points lead, 14 points ahead of 2003 series champion Matt Kenseth.
Surprisingly, it’s the first time in Chase history that RFR has held the top two spots in the points standings during the Chase. Though most called last weekend’s race at Talladega Superspeedway the wild card of the Chase, for Edwards and Kenseth this weekend’s race at Martinsville might be the deciding factor between a title or “better luck next year.”
If the two can escape this weekend – at a track where both have had mixed results – it could be smooth sailing. Two of the final three races are staged on 1.5-mile tracks, a favorite among the RFR crowd.
But first things first: the Martinsville short track, where RFR’s current stable of drivers remain winless. The team does have four Martinsville wins in all, from current Hendrick Motorsports driver Mark Martin (two), current Richard Childress Racing driver Jeff Burton (one) and current Penske Racing driver Kurt Busch (one).
RFR pins their championship hopes on Edwards and Kenseth. Their outlook for Sunday…
Edwards: In his post-race Talladega press conference, Edwards said he had never been happier about an 11th-place finish. With similar results at Martinsville, he might roll out a similar quote. Edwards has a Driver Rating of just 81.1, which makes the short track his second-worst track in terms of the Loop Data statistic. In 14 starts, Edwards has led just three laps – all of them coming in last April’s 18th-place finish.
Kenseth: Kenseth finished sixth in last April’s Martinsville event, but came into that race with four consecutive finishes outside the top 10. His best finish there is second, back in 2002. Kenseth’s enjoying one of his best seasons since his championship winning 2003 campaign. Through 32 races this season, he has three wins, 10 top fives, 18 top 10s and 721 laps led. Through 33 races in 2003, he had one win, 10 top fives, 23 top 10s and 354 laps led.
No Cigar: Earnhardt Close In Spring, Looks To End Drought
Martinsville Speedway’s packed stands erupted when Dale Earnhardt Jr. took the lead on Lap 480 of 500 last April. He held that lead for a long while, but Kevin Harvick slowly closed. Each passing lap, the crowd’s anticipation ballooned.
Then at Lap 497, just four laps from the race’s end, that balloon deflated … loudly.
Harvick passed Earnhardt, and went on to victory. Fan favorite Earnhardt finished second.
But the race acted as a springboard, as Earnhardt drove on to three consecutive top 10s finishes – and an eventual berth in his first Chase since 2008.
He hopes to close the deal this time around. His statistics are tremendous at Martinsville, with top-10 finishes in the last two races there and in five of the last seven. His Driver Rating of 98.9 makes the short track his best in terms of the Loop Data statistic. With an average finish of 13.3, Martinsville is his third-best track in terms of average finish.
Though his winless drought has reached 125 races, 2011 is still his best season in three years. His four top fives and 10 top 10s in 32 races surpass the full-season totals of 2009 and 2010.
Hamlin Hopes To Salvage Season
Here’s when you know you’ve enjoyed a stellar career: You make the Chase, you’ve won a race, scored double-digit top-10 figures – and it’s still the worst season of your career.
That’s Denny Hamlin’s predicament right now. By most accounts, any other driver would chew off his right arm for the kind of season Hamlin has “enjoyed” in 2011.
Still, his one win pales in comparison to his series-high eight of last season. And even with four races remaining, his 12 top 10s are guaranteed to be a career low.
Still, there are targets at which to aim for Hamlin – most notably, a top-10 points finish, which will in turn lead to a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Awards Ceremony invite.
At Talladega, Hamlin scored his second consecutive top-10 finish to move up to 11th in points. He now sits two points behind 10th-place Jeff Gordon with his best track on deck: Martinsville Speedway.
Hamlin boasts four wins, eight top fives and 10 top 10s at Martinsville. Prior to a 12th-place finish in April, Hamlin had six consecutive top fives at Martinsville, which included the four wins and a runner-up finish.
If Denny Hamlin doesn't win, it will snap his streak of winning at least one short-track race and at least once in his home state every year since 2008.
No Need To Sound The Spoiler Alert
When Clint Bowyer won last Sunday’s race at Talladega, it marked just the 14th time in 76 Chase races that a non-Chase driver won a Chase race.
Don’t expect that to happen again this weekend. A non-Chase driver has won at Martinsville only once, and it was a biggie: Jeff Gordon in 2005. That was the only season Gordon missed the Chase.
Though they don’t count as “spoilers,” per se, Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick might come closest to the “surprise winner” definition. Here’s why: Since the start of 2006, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have combined to win nine of the 11 races. Stewart and Harvick won the other two.
It’s go-time for the two marquee drivers, as well. Stewart has two victories at Martinsville. Harvick won the spring race there and finished third in this race last season. Stewart sits fourth in points, 19 points out. Harvick is fifth, 26 points out.
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Etc.
Travis Kvapil, driving the No. 38 Long John Silver's Ford, is guaranteed a spot in Sunday’s field – something that hasn’t happened since the first five races of the season. The team has overcome a 49-point deficit after race No. 24 at Bristol to climb back into the top 35, which guarantees a position on the starting grid. … Milestone Watch: Hendrick Motorsports is attempting to post its 200th win. If the team wins Sunday, it’ll also tie Petty Enterprises for most wins all-time at Martinsville (19); Jeff Gordon will attempt to make his 650th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start to remain 19th on the all-time starts list; Ryan Newman will attempt to post his 50th Coors Light pole; Kurt Busch is going for his 25th series win; Kasey Kahne will attempt to post his 100th series top-10 finish; Juan Pablo Montoya is going for his 50th series top five, AJ Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose are both attempting to post their 25th series top 10. … The unique four-inch high curbs guarding the inside of the turns at Martinsville Speedway have been painted pink in recognition of Breast Cancer Awareness Month. The newly-painted curbs will be unveiled to the public for the first time on NASCAR Sprint Cup and NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Practice Day on Friday, Oct. 28. … NASCAR will hold its third of three Electronic Fuel Injection (EFI) tests scheduled this month for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series on Oct. 31 at Martinsville Speedway. Previous tests have been held at Talladega and Charlotte. The tests are part of the continued development of the EFI Research & Development for the teams. Electronic Fuel Injection will be fully implemented in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series beginning at Daytona International Speedway in February 2012.
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