Chase Clinch Scenarios: Eight Spots Remain

Chase Clinch Scenarios: Eight Spots Remain

Three competitors have clinched seeded spots in this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ and another – 2003 champion Matt Kenseth – moves to the post season with at least a "wild card" entry. Current points leader Greg Biffle, five-time champion Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. locked up Chase berths at Bristol Motor Speedway over the weekend. For Biffle, it’s redemption after failing to qualify a year ago. Johnson continues to be the only driver to qualify in each of the nine seasons since the Chase format was adopted in 2004. Earnhardt is in for the second straight year and fifth time overall. Kenseth, a Chase qualifier for the eighth time, and other members of the current top 10 can lock up top-10 positions by holding leads of at least 49 points over 11th place following Sunday’s AdvoCare 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway (depending on which driver is in 11th and who wins Sunday’s race, some drivers can leave with a 48-point lead and still clinch a top-10 spot).

Up next: Atlanta Motor Speedway. Mathematically, every top-10 Chase spot could be clinched. There’s also a possibility that 11 of the 12 Chase spots could be clinched.

Four drivers control their own destiny as far as a top-10 clinches go: Matt Kenseth, Martin Truex Jr., Clint Bowyer and Brad Keselowski. Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart could also lock up top-10 spots, but would need help.

Below are the specifics for those who control their own destiny. Regardless of what any other driver does in Sunday night’s race at Atlanta, the following drivers will clinch a top-10 spot with listed finishes:

Matt Kenseth:

40th and no laps led

41st and at least one lap led

42nd and most laps led

Martin Truex Jr.:

14th and no laps led

15th and at least one lap led

16th and most laps led

Clint Bowyer:

11th and no laps led

12th and at least one lap led

13th and most laps led

Brad Keselowski:

7th and no laps led

8th and at least one lap led

9th and most laps led

A win would lock up at least a Wild Card spot for Hamlin, Harvick and Stewart. Depending on the final results from Sunday, Bowyer, Keselowski, Hamlin, Stewart, Kasey Kahne and Kyle Busch could clinch a Wild Card spot.

Kahne Leads Wild Cards But Could Advance To Top 10

Kasey Kahne continues to hold the aces in the Chase Wild Card game. His two victories, along with an 11th-place ranking, lead six eligible winners standing 11th through 20th in current points. There’s a very large asterisk, however, as Kahne has closed to within 11 points of the top 10 and the possibility the first-year Hendrick Motorsports driver can advance to the post season as a seeded Chase qualifier. Reigning champion Tony Stewart is on the bubble after his 27th-place finish at Bristol. Were Stewart to fall further, his three victories likely would give him one of two Wild Card spots – but the three-time champion would lose nine bonus points reserved for a seeded qualifier. Kyle Busch moved ahead of Ryan Newman to claim rights to the second provisional Wild Card entry. He’s followed by Jeff Gordon, Newman, Marcos Ambrose and Joey Logano. Carl Edwards, 12th in the standings and 34 points out of 10th, is in must-win territory with two races remaining until the Chase field is set. Edwards posted his first NASCAR Sprint Cup win in 2005 en route to an Atlanta season sweep and added another victory in 2008.

Chase Points Reset Rewards Regular-Season Winners

Here’s how the points reset works when the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ begins Sept. 16 at Chicagoland Speedway. Each of the 12 qualifiers begins the 10-race competition with 2,000 points. The top-10 qualifiers then are awarded three bonus points for each victory. Example, based on current standings (locked in drivers): Jimmie Johnson (three wins) would start the Chase with 2,009 points, Greg Biffle (two wins) 2,006 points and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (one win) 2,003 points. The two Wild Card qualifiers receive no bonus points regardless of how many times they have won during the regular season.