Eight Battle For Chase Berth With Varying Degrees Of Hope
Win and/or hope.That’s all that’s left for eight drivers battling for the final Chase Wild Card in Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway, the 26th and last event in the Race to the Chase.
Who does and doesn’t make this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ largely will be predicated on the success at Richmond of reigning NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Tony Stewart.
Ranked 10th with three victories and a potential nine Chase bonus points, Stewart’s hold on a seeded position is precarious. He clinched at least a Wild Card berth in Atlanta.
Stewart controls his own destiny and those nine potential bonus points. He stays in the top 10 with a Richmond finish of 14th with no laps led, 15th with at least one lap led and 16th with the most laps led. He’s a three-time Richmond winner and finished third in April.
Should Stewart tumble, all heck breaks loose.
Kasey Kahne, Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon, trailing Stewart by 18, 23 and 35 points respectively, go to the last race of the regular season with mathematical chances of reaching the top 10. Kahne, a two-time winner, and one-race winner Busch are in line for the two Wild Cards under current points.
Five more drivers – Marcos Ambrose, Ryan Newman, Joey Logano, Carl Edwards and Paul Menard – also go to Richmond with varying degrees of hope of qualifying for the Chase.
This is how the Race to the Chase finale shapes up for each:
- Kahne: A Richmond victory clinches a Wild Card. If Stewart stays in the top 10, Kahne automatically clinches. If Stewart falls out of the top 10, Kahne will clinch a spot if a one-win driver outside the top 10 does not win. If Busch supplants Stewart in the top 10, and Gordon wins, Kahne clinches a spot by finishing 13th or better, 14th with at least one lap led or 15th with the most laps led. Kahne has one Richmond victory and a Driver Rating of 86.6 (12th best). He was fifth in April’s Richmond race.
- Busch: If Stewart remains in the top 10 or if Kahne supplants Stewart in the top 10, Busch will clinch a Chase spot by losing 12 or fewer points to Gordon AND by losing 40 or fewer points to Ambrose. A win would guarantee Busch a Chase berth. Busch is a four-time Richmond winner (including April) and stands second in five key Loop Data categories including Driver Rating (116.1). His average finish is 4.7.
- Gordon: If Stewart remains in the top 10 or if Kahne supplants Stewart in the top 10, Gordon will clinch by finishing 13 points ahead of Busch AND by losing 28 or fewer points to Ambrose AND by losing 37 or fewer points to Newman. If Busch supplants Stewart in the top 10, Gordon would clinch a Chase berth with a win AND finishing 18 points ahead of Kahne at Richmond. Gordon has won twice at Richmond but not since 2000. He has a sixth-best Driver Rating of 96.2.
- Ambrose: If Stewart remains in the top 10 or if Kahne supplants Stewart in the top 10, Ambrose will clinch by finishing 41 points ahead of Busch AND 29 points ahead of Gordon. A fifth-place finish in the fall of 2010 is Ambrose’s best Richmond effort. His average finish of 16.1 is nearly six positions higher than his average start.
- Newman: Newman can only clinch a Chase berth with a win. If either Busch or Gordon supplants Stewart in the top 10, Newman will be eliminated. Newman’s one Richmond victory came in the fall of 2003. His 464 Quality Passes rank second.
- Logano: Logano can only clinch a Chase berth with a win. If either Busch or Gordon supplants Stewart in the top 10, Logano will be eliminated. His best Richmond finish, fourth, came in the fall of 2010. He finished 24th in April.
- Edwards: Edwards needs to win (47-point win) AND Busch has to finish 24th or worse (with no laps led) AND Gordon has to finish 12th or worse. If Busch or Gordon supplants Stewart in the top 10, Edwards will be eliminated. Edwards led 206 laps in April before a late-race restart penalty relegated him to a 10th-place finish. He finished second in the 2012 fall race.
- Menard: Menard needs to win (47-point win) AND Busch has to finish 34th or worse (with no laps led) AND Gordon has to finish 22nd or worst (with no laps led). If Busch or Gordon supplants Stewart in the top 10, Menard will be eliminated. Menard has finished outside the top 20 in nine Richmond races with his best finish, 13th, coming in April.
All other drivers have been eliminated from Chase contention.
Hamlin Grabs Chase Momentum As Season’s First Back-To-Back Winner
Denny Hamlin has the momentum and the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ bonus points to prove it.With his fourth victory of the NASCAR Sprint Cup season on Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Hamlin grabbed the provisional No. 1 Chase seed. Pending results of Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway – where Hamlin counts a pair of victories – he’ll start the Chase with at least 12 bonus points.
Only five-time champion Jimmie Johnson can overtake Hamlin this weekend, and become the No. 1 seed when the Chase begins Sept. 16 at Chicagoland Speedway. If Johnson wins, and Hamlin finishes third or worse, Johnson nabs the No. 1 seed.
You can say Hamlin is peaking at the right time. He’s the first driver to score back-to-back victories in 2012. The Virginian won at Bristol Motor Speedway on Aug. 25. Hamlin’s early season wins came at Phoenix and Kansas, two tracks he’ll visit again during the Chase.
"This was one I wanted real bad. I wanted to win to be the number one seed," said Hamlin, while congratulating his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota crew for beating then-race leader Martin Truex Jr. off pit road on the race’s final pit stop. "They were just on it all day long. This is a testament to the team [crew chief] Darian Grubb has assembled. … He has assembled a championship-caliber team."
Grubb is last year’s championship crew chief with Stewart-Haas Racing and Tony Stewart.
Atlanta, as expected, filled the majority of this year’s post-season berths. Hamlin, Truex, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick clinched top-10 regular-season finishes with Stewart guaranteed at least one of the Wild Cards.
They join Johnson, Greg Biffle and Dale Earnhardt Jr., who locked up their post seasons at Bristol.
Johnson is in the Chase for the ninth consecutive season. All of this year’s qualifiers, so far, previously have competed in the Chase. Biffle, Bowyer and Truex failed to make the Chase in 2011.
Biffle retained his NASCAR Sprint Cup standings lead by eight points over Earnhardt. The standings will be reset after Richmond with each Chase qualifier receiving a base of 2,000 points. Drivers finishing among the top 10 receive three additional points per victory.
Johnson (fourth) has three victories, as does Keselowski (sixth) and Stewart (10th). Biffle has won twice. Earnhardt (second), Kenseth (third) and Bowyer (eighth) each have won once. Richmond is the final opportunity for Truex (fifth) and Harvick (ninth) to post a pre-Chase victory.
Going Dancing: Michael Waltrip Racing Makes First Chase
Michael Waltrip Racing’s evolution is almost complete. After joining the NSCS full time in 2007 and nabbing its first win in ’09, MWR has clinched a berth in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup for the first time. In fact, it has clinched two berths. Next up, a series championship. Don’t think that goal is too far-fetched. Prior to this season, David Reutimann provided MWR with their best finish when he placed 16th in 2009. Headed into the 2012 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway, the organization is guaranteed two drivers in the top 12.Martin Truex Jr. (fifth) and Clint Bowyer (eighth) have each taken a different path to secure their places in NASCAR’s playoff.
While Truex hasn’t posted a victory yet this season, he’s having a career year. With 11 races left, he’s already tied his single-season record for top-10 finishes with 14 and is one top-five finish away from tying his single-season record (seven) for top fives. Both records were set in 2007, the only other year he qualified for the Chase.
Truex is also on pace to break his personal single-season record of most laps led in a season (581), also established in 2007. He currently has led 416 laps in 2012. His sole win in the NSCS came in 2007 at Dover, which hosts a Chase event. Last weekend in the AdvoCare 500 at Atlanta, he finished fourth after leading prior to the race’s final caution.
Clint Bowyer enters the 2012 Chase having already experienced success in the playoff format when he finished third overall in 2007. He also qualified for the Chase in 2008 and 2010.
Even if Bowyer doesn’t win at Richmond, he will start the Chase with three bonus points after winning at Sonoma in June. In addition to his victory, he has five top-five and 14 top-10 finishes in 25 starts.
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