Handicapping Remainder Of Race To The Chase

Crystal Ball: Handicapping Remainder Of Race To The Chase

Statistically speaking, it’ll be a wildly entertaining run to Richmond, where the 12 drivers will crowned as contenders for the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship.

Who will place his or her name among those 12 drivers – that’s the question. Let’s take a look at the statistics over the remaining seven races to cull some of the favorites.

Jimmie Johnson, points leader: It’s tough to find a scenario where he doesn’t make the Chase, either as a likely top-10 driver, or a Wild Card winner. Even still, he has little to worry about. He owns the top driver rating at the next seven race tracks, with a 101.6. He also has the top average running position (11.1) and the best percentage of laps in the top 15 (73.0%).

Tony Stewart, 13th: Currently, he’s in a Wild Card spot. But looking at the upcoming allotment of races, figure on him entering – and staying – in the top 10. He has the third-best driver rating (97.7) to go along with 17 wins and 103 top-10 finishes at the next seven tracks.

Jeff Gordon, 12th: Bad luck has followed Gordon around for much of this season, but count on a swing towards positivity between now and the start of the Chase. With 28 wins, 101 top fives, 149 top 10s, an average running position of 12.0 and a Driver Rating of 97.6, the four-time champion boasts some of the top stats at the next seven tracks.

Kurt Busch, 14th: Busch, whose 31st-place finish at New Hampshire belied his actual performance (he had a driver rating of 111.2), took a big hit in the points last Sunday. But there shouldn’t be much panic from the Furniture Row Racing camp. Busch has 13 wins (fourth-most) and a Driver Rating of 91.6 at the upcoming seven tracks.

Johnson Dominates, But Points Merry-Go-Round Continues

When you’ve won five NASCAR Sprint Cup Series titles – all consecutively – you become the odds-on favorite to win another.

Add to those credentials that Jimmie Johnson tops the standings heading into the regular season’s final seven races. Johnson’s lead ballooned to 56 points on Sunday, a record since the point-per-position system was introduced in 2011.

Yet, Johnson’s domination is deceptive.

Effectively, his lead is zero. Johnson has four victories. So does sixth-ranked Matt Kenseth.

If the standings reset occurred today, Johnson and Kenseth – also a former NASCAR Sprint Cup champion – would enter the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ in a 2,012 point dead heat. Each top-10 Chase qualifier receives a base of 2,000 points after Richmond’s Sept. 7 event with three bonus points added per victory.

Johnson and Kenseth are virtual locks to qualify for the Chase, 175 and 55 points, respectively, ahead of the current 11th-place driver Martin Truex Jr. So, too, are the remainder of the top seven that include Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kyle Busch.

Only Bowyer and Earnhardt are winless among the group.

From there, it gets interesting; very, very interesting.

Eighth through 11th positions are separated by 24 points. From 10th through 14th, the margin is seven markers. Twentieth place – Paul Menard – is just 36 points out of the top 10.

Sunday’s New Hampshire race again produced “comers” and “goers.”

Reigning NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Brad Keselowski righted the Penske Racing ship, at least for a week, using a fourth-place finish to vault from 13th to ninth. He is joined in the top 10 by Kahne, who gained two positions.

The losers were former champions Kurt Busch, ninth to 14th and Tony Stewart, 10th to 13th.

They say there are no guarantees in stock car racing.

The 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup regular season certainly is proof of that.