At The Glen

Johnson Can Clinch 10th Chase Berth At The Glen

It’s that time of the year. One championship contender – Jimmie Johnson – can clinch a berth in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ on Sunday at Watkins Glen International.

The five-time Sprint Cup champion is the sole driver holding a clinch scenario this weekend. Johnson has to leave The Glen with a 193-point lead over the 11th place driver. Currently, he holds a 178-point lead over 11th, which is occupied by Tony Stewart.

Stewart will miss Sunday’s race after breaking a leg in a sprint car race on Monday night, and will be replaced by Max Papis in his No. 14 Chevrolet on Sunday. Reigning Sprint Cup champion Brad Keselowski is 12th, 180 points behind Johnson. Johnson is the only competitor to have qualified for the Chase field in all nine seasons.

A win at The Glen will guarantee Johnson at least a Wild Card entry into this year’s post season. He has won four times already – as has Matt Kenseth. But mathematically – and officially – speaking, Kenseth cannot lock up a Wild Card spot just yet. There are other Johnson finishes that would give the five-time champion at least a Wild Card clinch depending on finishes from other competitors.

While Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick, who rank second through fourth, appear to be “locks” for a Chase appearance, each is several races away from an official clinch. Bowyer leads 11th by 101 points; Edwards has 94 points in hand and Harvick is 81 ahead of 11th.

Harvick has two victories and Edwards one. Harvick won at The Glen in 2006. While Bowyer has yet to visit Victory Lane in 2013, the driver of the No. 15 Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota has a Sprint Cup road racing win – at Sonoma in 2012. He finished fourth in last year’s Cheez-It 355.

Third Win Could Be Chase ‘Charm’ For Ambrose

Marcos Ambrose, who bested Brad Keselowski in a dramatic, on and off the race track slugfest on the final lap of last year’s Cheez-It 350, is an obvious favorite to win Sunday’s return to Watkins Glen International. The Australian import has beaten Keselowski in successive seasons and would become just the third driver to win three consecutive Glen races. Denny Hamlin was the most recent winner of three straight at a specific track; in 2009-10 at Martinsville Speedway.

A victory likely will qualify Ambrose for Chase Wild Card consideration. He currently stands 22nd but is only five points out of a requisite top-20 ranking.

That probably won’t be enough to give the driver of the No. 9 Richard Petty Motorsports Ford a post-season berth. Tony Stewart (11th), Martin Truex Jr. (14th) and Ryan Newman (15th) are at least 75 points ahead of Ambrose - a huge gap to overcome with five races remaining.

Effectively Ambrose – and Juan Pablo Montoya, another Glen winner – would have to add an oval victory to their season stats, something neither competitor has been able to do in their NASCAR Sprint Cup careers.

Newman has the easier route. He’s just nine points behind Truex after a victory and fourth-place finish in his past two starts. Former Sprint Cup champions Keselowski and Kurt Busch stand oh-so-close to the top 10 – 12th and 13th, seven and 11 points, respectively outside the top 10.

Keselowski likely would accept another second-place finish. Busch owns a premier series road racing victory at Sonoma Raceway in 2011 and would be the first driver from a single-car team – the No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Chevrolet – to qualify for the Chase.

“I feel very confident now heading back there not to just have speed in qualifying but to have speed throughout the race,” said Busch, reflecting on last week’s Glen test. “It's an important race. Sonoma is on the calendar in June and the middle of August is much more important.”

Sweep Dreams: Truex Aims To Join Exclusive Road Course List

Martin Truex Jr. shocked the NASCAR world in June, winning at Sonoma Raceway to become the seventh different first-time road course winner in the last seven races at Sonoma. Another win, at another road course, would place him on a short list of road course sweepers. In terms of shock value, a Truex win at Watkins Glen on Sunday would make Sonoma look ho hum.

Since Sonoma and Watkins Glen became the only two road-course races on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule, only four drivers have swept the two races in the same season. One of those drivers did it twice. The list consists of some of the top road-course talents the sport has ever seen: Jeff Gordon (1998-99), Robby Gordon (2003), Tony Stewart (2005) and Kyle Busch (2008). That’s it.

So, though Truex boasts some solid statistics at Watkins Glen, pulling the road-course sweep would be a surprise. In seven starts, Truex has scored four top-10 finishes (two of those came in the last two races). He hasn’t led any laps at The Glen, but has scored driver ratings over 100 in each of the last two Watkins Glen races. But more importantly, a sweep – or a strong finish – would solidify Truex’s standing in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup battle.