Kenseth Holds Serve, Looks To Make More ‘Magic’

Clutch City: Kenseth Holds Serve, Looks To Make More ‘Magic’ 

Matt Kenseth pulled off a feat accomplished only once before. And in doing so, may have laid the foundation for a second NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship – a full decade after his first.

Kenseth won the opening Chase for the NASCAR Sprint race as the No. 1 seed – only Mark Martin in 2009 had done that before. Now he looks to join another all-time great, Terry Labonte. Labonte’s the only driver that had gone a decade or more between his first and second championships (his first came in 1984; second in 1996).

If history serves as a blueprint, that very well may happen. Since Chicagoland became host of Chase race No. 1, the race winner went on to win the championship each year (Tony Stewart in 2011; Brad Keselowski in 2012).

Two major roadblocks stand in Kenseth’s way, however. First, and most immediately: New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Kenseth has just two top 10s in the last 11 races. His average finish over that span: 18.6. On the bright side, all but one of those finishes were in Roush Fenway Racing equipment. His lone race with Joe Gibbs Racing resulted in a ninth-place finish, in July.

Second: The rest of the Chase field put Kenseth on notice – he may be the favorite, but in no way will he breeze to a second championship

To wit: The top six in Sunday’s race were all Chase drivers. And even with the max-point win, Kenseth’s points lead grew by a mere five points – from three to eight over Kyle Busch. And he didn’t pad his cushion over many other Chasers either. The top seven are all separated by just 25 points.

So, give Round 1 to Kenseth. But the likes of Jimmie Johnson and Busch – the second and third seed entering the Chase, respectively – aren’t far behind. 

Busch finished second at New Hampshire in June, leading 53 laps. And Johnson has 11 top 10s in the last 13 races, including a runner-up finish in last year’s New Hampshire Chase race.

 

Message To Earnhardt, Logano: Don’t Worry Be Happy

Engine troubles ended Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Joey Logano’s night early at Chicagoland on Sunday, dropping the two drivers to 12th and 13th in the standings.

Heading to New Hampshire for the SYLVANIA 300 and the second round of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup fight, Logano and Earnhardt sit 52 and 53 points, respectively, behind points leader Matt Kenseth.

 And guess what: Big deal. There’s plenty of Chase left; just ask Jimmie Johnson.

While those in Logano and Earnhardt’s camps might sound the alarms, the drivers should at least find solace in that Johnson started off the 2006 Chase on a rather sour note, finishing 39th in the first Chase race, which coincidentally was in New Hampshire. The lackluster showing dropped him from second to ninth in the standings, in a year where there were only 10 Chase contenders.

As everyone knows, Johnson rebounded after the opening race to capture the first of his record five consecutive titles on the strength of one win and four runner-up finishes in the last nine races. It was the worst finish in the first Chase race by an eventual champion.

In 10 starts at the 1.058-mile oval, Logano has one win (June 2009) and four top 10s. The win was the Connecticut native’s first trip to Victory Lane in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Earnhardt has collected seven top fives and 11 top 10s in 28 starts at the track, his best finish a third in September 2004.

Clearly, Earnhardt and Logano would have preferred a strong start. History indicates a top-10 finish in Chase race No. 1 is ideal for championship hopes. The average finish in the first Chase race for the eventual champion is 9.0, with seven of the previous nine eventual titlists finishing in the top 10.

Here’s the breakdown:

2004 – Kurt Busch – Won, New Hampshire

2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd, New Hampshire

2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 39th, New Hampshire

2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 6th, New Hampshire

2008 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd, New Hampshire

2009 – Jimmie Johnson – 4th, New Hampshire

2010 – Jimmie Johnson – 25th, New Hampshire

2011 – Tony Stewart – Won, Chicagoland

2012 – Brad Keselowski – Won, Chicagoland