Big Names, Bigger Goal: Win and Advance, Or Else

Big Names, Bigger Goal: Win and Advance, Or Else

Jimmie Johnson (six) and Brad Keselowski (one) have accounted for seven of the last eight NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championships.

The two drivers better hurry if either hopes to increase that figure to eight-of-nine.

With one race left in the in the Contender Round, Keselowski (-19 points below the cutoff) and Johnson (-26) rank 10th and 11th respectively on the Chase Grid and are in danger of failing to make the eight-man Eliminator Round. Each competitor only controls his destiny by winning Sunday’s GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway (2 p.m. ET on ESPN). Otherwise, they must hope for colossal misfortune to the drivers ahead of them and record their own strong performances in the process to vault into the top eight.

Two factors are working in Keselowski and Johnson’s favor, but both come with major disclaimers:

1.     The duo knows what it takes to clinch victory at the 2.66-mile restrictor plate track. Both Keselowski and Johnson have won twice at Talladega (Johnson in the spring 2006 and spring 2011; Keselowski in the spring of 2009 and spring of 2012). Their problem is that no one in the Chase era has won consistently at the Alabama track, which has seen different victors in its last seven races.

2.     Talladega has a knack for treachery and unpredictability. It is a tough track to finish a race unscathed for even the most talented of drivers. Take Gordon for example - he leads all active drivers with six wins at Talladega, but has failed to finish nine times in 43 starts at the track. Johnson and Keselowski can gain huge chunks of ground with the high likelihood that someone currently ranked ahead of them suffers a rough day. Their problem? They have to avoid turmoil as well.

Keselowski ranks tied for the series lead with five victories this season and entered the Chase as the No. 1 seed. Johnson earned the fourth seed in the Chase with three wins and is the defending NSCS champion. He is attempting to win his seventh overall NSCS title, which would tie him with Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt Jr. for the most all-time.

 

Earnhardt Hopes To Rediscover Magic After Decade-Long ’Dega Drought

Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson are not the only pre-Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup favorites in danger of missing the eight-driver Eliminator Round. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is also in a near must-win situation as he enters Sunday’s Geico 500 cutoff race at Talladega (2 p.m. ET on ESPN) ranking 12th (of 12), 26 points behind his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kasey Kahne for the final advancing spot.

Barring epic collapses from the drivers ahead of him, Earnhardt has to win on Sunday to move onward in the Chase. NASCAR fans thumbing through the record books might see Earnhardt has won five times at Talladega and think he should be a heavy favorite this weekend. Upon further review, they will notice he hasn’t seen victory lane at ’Dega in more than a decade (Oct. 3, 2004).

During his 19-race ’Dega drought, Earnhardt has recorded a respectable six top-10 finishes, including two runner-ups, the most recent in last fall’s Talladega tussle. The stretch pales in comparison to his three-year, seven-race run (2001-04) at Talladega when he notched a track-record four consecutive victories, followed by two straight runner-up finishes and a fifth checkered flag.

Earnhardt will attempt to rekindle some of his old Talladega magic to make up for a pair of tough-luck performances in the first two races of the Eliminator Round. He was leading the opener at Kansas for 45 laps until he hit the wall on the 122nd go-around, causing him to finish 39th. In the second event at Charlotte, Earnhardt could not overcome an issue with his shifter as he took 20th-place.

A rejuvenated Earnhardt has notched three victories this year, as many as he has accumulated in his last eight seasons combined. His highest Chase finish was a third-place result in 2003.

 

Joe Gibbs Racing Trio Eyes Eliminator Round

Joe Gibbs Racing entered the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup with a little less fanfare than its Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports counterparts.

And rightfully so. Drivers from Team Penske and HMS won eight of the last 10 regular season races, while JGR hasn’t seen Victory Lane since Denny Hamlin captured the checkered flag at Talladega in May.

JGR might garner some more hype very soon though. Heading into the GEICO 500 (2 p.m. ET on ESPN) the Chase cutoff race at Talladega, the organization has a great shot of advancing all three of its drivers into the Chase’s Eliminator Round:

Kyle Busch – Busch ranks second in the points standings, 25 points above the cutoff line, after placing third at Kansas and fifth at Charlotte. Regardless of the performance of other drivers, Busch can advance at Talladega by finishing 24th or better, 25th with at least one lap led, or 26th with the most laps led. In 19 starts at Talladega Busch boasts one win, four top-five and two top-10 showings.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin occupies the seventh spot on the Chase Grid, 16 points ahead of the cutoff line, following top-10 outputs in the first two Contender Round races. He can control his Eliminator Round destiny by posting finishes of 15th or better, 16th with at least one lap led, or 17th with the most laps led. In addition to his spring victory, the No. 11 FedEx driver claims four top-five and six top-10 finishes at Talladega.

Matt Kenseth – At ninth on the Chase Grid, Kenseth trails Kasey Kahne by just one point for the final spot in the Eliminator Round. He only controls his own destiny by winning at Talladega, but can easily make up ground if Kahne or anyone else in front of him falters. Kenseth boasts the series’ best driver rating (90.9) among active competitors with more than one start at the 2.66-mile track.

 

Ganassi Drivers Look To Play Spoiler For Second Straight Week

Chip Ganassi Racing drivers Jamie McMurray and Kyle Larson failed to make the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, but they may have impacted its results at Charlotte last week. McMurray and Larson took precious points away from championship-qualifying drivers by posting respective finishes of third and sixth.

Both members of the Ganassi duo will attempt to play spoiler again and notch their first victories of the season in Sunday’s GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway (2 p.m. ET on ESPN).

Last year’s fall race winner at Talladega, McMurray also notched a victory in 2009 at the 2.66-mile course. The No. 1 McDonald’s Monopoly Chevrolet boasts four career wins at restrictor plate tracks.

Larson has performed almost as well as anyone in the Chase since it began. If he qualified for NASCAR’s playoffs, the Sunoco Rookie of the Year frontrunner would be second to Joey Logano in points. He rides a streak of five consecutive top-six finishes into Talladega where he placed ninth in the spring.

“Kyle and I, when we sit in our team meetings and talk, it’s just about trying to win,” McMurray said. “We have a completely different type of pressure on us than what Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon and these guys (have).

“They're kind of having their own little race, and Kyle and I are just going out every week and trying to win.”

 

Champions Avoid ’Dega Wild Card Woes

Last season, Matt Kenseth headed to Talladega Superspeedway with a four-point standings lead.

He left the Alabama track trailing Jimmie Johnson by the same margin following a 20th-place finish.

Kenseth was never able to regain sole possession of first place and saw Johnson go on to win the 2013 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

Tales of championship-leading drivers suffering their demise at Talladega have been commonplace in recent memory. The fall showdown at the 2.66-mile restrictor plate track has been the defining race throughout the Chase era.

Stories of title hopes slipping away at Talladega are endless:

Jeff Gordon lost the points lead with a 19th-place finish in 2004. A year later, Jimmie Johnson finished 31st and fell from first to fourth – a stumble from which he could not recover. Jeff Burton saw a 69-point advantage slip to six after finishing 27th in 2006. He also failed to win the championship.

Until last season, No. 1-ranked drivers had fared better in subsequent years with just one – Johnson in 2007 – losing a points lead at Talladega.

Under the new Chase format, the two drivers with Chase Contender Round wins, Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick, are safe to advance no matter what happens in Sunday’s GEICO 500 (2 p.m. ET on ESPN) at Talladega. Still, current non-winning drivers who seem safely above the cut, such as Kyle Busch (+25 points) and Ryan Newman (+20), must be able to successfully navigate the track unscathed or else run the risk of elimination.

No NASCAR Sprint Cup champion has won Talladega’s Chase race during a title season. Stewart and Johnson’s second-place finishes in 2005 and 2007, respectively, are best. The eventual champion has recorded three top-five and eight top-10 finishes. Their average finish, with just a single DNF, is 8.2.

Talladega has punished the driver that ultimately holds the season’s runner-up position. Six of the 10 have finished 20th or worse with an average finish of 18.9.