SPRINT CUP SERIES Heading Into Dover

10/1/15

NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES

Harvick On The Ropes Heading Into Dover

Defending champion Kevin Harvick has two options heading into Sunday’s AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway (2:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN) – the first cutoff race of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup – win or go home.

The No. 4 Chevrolet driver ranks 15th out of 16 drivers on the Chase Grid and sits 23 points below 12th-place Dale Earnhardt Jr. on the cutoff line. He mathematically can still make the Contender Round on points, but it would be a tough task, requiring him to jump three drivers.

Basically, if Harvick doesn’t visit Victory Lane, he will be knocked out of NASCAR’s playoffs as one of the four winless drivers lowest in points.

In 29 career starts at the track known as the “Monster Mile,” Harvick has never won. No active driver has made more starts at Dover without a win. However, he did finish runner-up in the spring race in Delaware’s capital.

Last season, Harvick found himself in a similar situation after placing 33rd at Martinsville to open the Eliminator 8. He won one race later at Phoenix in a do-or-die situation to salvage his championship run.

Busch’s Contender Round Hopes Hinge On Dover Performance

If he doesn’t act fast, Kyle Busch’s dream season is going to come to a close.

Busch currently sits 13th on the Chase Grid, one point behind Dale Earnhardt Jr. for the final spot in the Contender Round.

To advance in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Busch needs to either win Sunday’s race at Dover or avoid being one of the four winless drivers lowest in points.

Fortunately, Busch has a strong track record at the Monster Mile. He boasts two wins, nine top fives and 13 top 10s at the Delaware track. Busch also has strong loop statistics, owning the third-best Dover driver rating (105.0) and the fourth-best average running position (11.235).

Busch returned to NSCS action in late May, just four months after breaking his leg and fracturing his foot in an accident at Daytona. In only 15 regular season races, he racked up four wins, tying Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson for the series lead.

And it's those four regular season wins – and the Chase bonus points that went with them – that may earn him a spot in the next round. When the Chase started, all Chase drivers had their points reset to 2,000, with three bonus points added for every regular season win. Busch started the Chase with 2,012 points. Earnhardt started with 2,006. Jamie McMurray, who sits just two points ahead of Busch, is winless in 2015 and started with 2,000.

Only time will tell if he'll actually need to rely on those extra points -- but it certainly looks like he will.

Jimmie Johnson Set To Make 500th Start At Place He Wins ‘Dover And Dover’ Again

It’s not all in his head. Jimmie Johnson does it “Dover and Dover” again at the Monster Mile.

The No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet driver owns a track-record 10 wins at Dover International Speedway, including checkered flags in three of the last four races there. Additionally, he’s the only active driver with 10 or more wins at a single track.

It’s fitting that Johnson will make his 500th start on Sunday at the oval he dominates.

Over his career, Johnson boasts 74 wins (eighth all-time), 204 top fives (10th all-time) and 310 top 10s (15th all-time). The California native made his first start at Charlotte Motor Speedway on Oct. 7, 2001 and notched his first victory in his 13th race on April 28, 2002 at Auto Club Speedway.

Joe Gibbs Racing Continues Dominance

Joe Gibbs Racing has carried its end-of-season dominance into the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. The organization has won the first two races of NASCAR’s playoffs (Denny Hamlin, Chicagoland; Matt Kenseth, New Hampshire) after visiting Victory Lane in eight of the last 11 regular season races.

The team has also finished 1-2 in three consecutive races, a feat that hasn’t happened since 1956, when owner Carl Kiekhaefer did it in four consecutive races.

As a result of their wins, Hamlin and Kenseth have advanced to the Contender Round of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. JGR drivers Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch rank third and 13th on the Chase Grid, respectively. Edwards only needs to earn 12 points at Dover (32nd and no laps, 33rd and at least one lap, 34th and most laps led) to transfer to the Contender Round. Busch, on the other hand, only controls his destiny by winning. Luckily for him, he sits just one point below the cutoff line and can still advance on points.

Clinch Scenarios for Dover: Safety In Numbers?

Only two drivers have locked up a spot in the Contender Round – Denny Hamlin thanks to his Chicagoland win, and New Hampshire winner Matt Kenseth.

Everyone else enters with a mathematical chance and missing the next round. And there are some BIG names in danger of seeing their title hopes evaporate at Dover.

Some should feel secure. Like these guys (all clinch scenarios are regardless of any other driver’s finish):

Carl Edwards guarantees a clinch with a finish of 32nd or better; 33rd and at least one lap led; or 34th and the most laps led. Edwards has an average finish of 15.3 this season and 10.6 at Dover. He should be safe.

Joey Logano guarantees a clinch with a finish of 31st or better; 32nd and at least one lap led; or 33rd and the most laps led. Logano has an average finish this season of 8.3, and a Dover average finish of 13.6. He looks good.

Jimmie Johnson guarantees a clinch with a finish of 25th or better; 26th and at least one lap led; or 27th and the most laps led. Johnson hasn’t won in 15 races, but his 10 wins at Dover should make him feel comfortable. It’d be the upset of the century if he gets bounced.

Some might be a tad worried, but all-in-all it should work out. Like these guys:

Ryan Newman guarantees a clinch with a finish of 16th or better; 17th and at least one lap led; or 18th and most laps led. Driving to his average finish of 13.6 at Dover would be enough to clinch. But, he’s finish 18th or worse in two of the last three Dover races.

Kurt Busch guarantees a clinch with a finish of 15th or better; 16th and at least one lap led; or 17th and the most laps led. Busch has finished outside the top 15 in each of the last four Dover races, including a 31st-place finish in May.

Brad Keselowski guarantees a clinch with a finish of 14th or better; 15th and at least one lap led; or 16th and the most laps led. He should be OK, considering he’s finished runner-up in two of the last three Dover races.

Martin Truex Jr. guarantees a clinch with a finish of 13th or better; 14th and at least one lap led; or 15th and the most laps led. This is the perfect track for Truex. It’s his home track; he won his first race there in 2007; and he’s finished in the top 10 in the last three Dover races. His Contender Round chances look good.

Jeff Gordon guarantees a clinch with a finish of 10th or better; 11th and at least one lap led; 12th and the most laps led. Gordon has finished in the top 10 in each of the last two Dover races, and his last win came in this race last year. He’s in good shape, unlike…

For everyone else, the only way to guarantee a spot in the next round is a win. That group includes Jamie McMurray, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, Paul Menard, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer. Of course, there are other ways the above can get in, but the safest and only SURE way is victory.