Numbers Game: Breaking down the Chase scenarios for Richmond
September 8, 2016
By Reid Spencer
NASCAR Wire Service
Count 'em.
As
the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Richmond for the final event in
the 26-race regular season, there are 19 drivers competing for the final
four berths in the Chase for
the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
That’s right, 19 drivers who could qualifying for NASCAR’s 10-race playoff if circumstances happen to fall the right way.
Among the 19, however, there’s a vast disparity in the odds of success.
Eleven
drivers can clinch a Chase spot only with a victory in Saturday night’s
Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway (7:30 p.m.
ET on NBCSN).
Ryan
Blaney, AJ Allmendinger, Trevor Bayne, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Paul
Menard, Greg Biffle, Danica Patrick, Aric Almirola, Clint Bowyer, Casey
Mears and Landon Cassill are comfortably
within the top 30 in the Sprint Cup standings, but their only path to
the playoffs consists of winning at Richmond.
David
Ragan (31st in points) and Regan Smith (32nd) face even longer odds.
Each if those drivers can capture victory, they'll make the Chase only
if they leap-frog past other
drivers into the top 30—no small accomplishment.
In
a poker game, the player who starts with the best hand is most likely
to win the pot. Similarly, in the race for the Chase, Chase Elliott and
Chris Buescher are most likely
to earn spots in the playoff because they are starting with an
advantage and control their own destinies.
If
there is a repeat winner in the Sprint Cup series at Richmond, Elliott
can clinch a Chase spot with a finish of 39th or better (40th if he
leads a lap).
Clearly,
Elliott shares one hope with the four other drivers he’s battling for a
Chase berth on points (Austin Dillon, Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman and
Kasey Kahne) namely that
there’s no new winner at Richmond—unless, of course, they happen to be
that new winner.
Take
a look at how the math changes if there happens to be a new winner who
isn’t Elliott, Dillon, McMurray, Newman or Kahne. (And bear in mind
that, in each case, a driver can
finish one position lower with a lap led and two positions lower with
most laps led).
With
a new winner, Elliott can clinch a Chase spot with a finish of 17th.
Dillon must finish eighth or better to clinch if there’s a new winner,
30th if there’s not.
McMurray’s
case for the Chase is the most complicated. If there’s a repeat winner
(or if Elliott or Dillon, the two winless drivers ahead of McMurray in
the standings, happens
to be a new winner) McMurray clinches a Chase spot with a finish of
21st or better.
Like
Elliott, Dillon, Newman and Kahne, of course, McMurray clinches a Chase
spot if he wins the race. If there’s a repeat winner AND Buescher falls
out of the top 30 in points,
McMurray is playoff-bound, regardless of finish.
The
15-point penalty Newman incurred for his No. 31 Chevrolet’s laser
inspection station (LIS) failure after Sunday’s race at Darlington put a
serious crimp in his Chase hopes.
Newman’s best hope at this point is win the race or to make up 22
points on McMurray and hope there’s a repeat winner.
Newman
has an average finish of 11.7 to McMurray’s 20.1, but it’s worth noting
that McMurray has finished a career-best fourth in three of the last
six Richmond races and no
worse than 16th in that span. After the imposition of the 15-point
penalty on Wednesday, Newman likely needs a McMurray disaster to advance
to the Chase.
Kahne’s
road to the playoffs is even more difficult. To make the Chase on
points, the driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet must hope
for a repeat winner AND outscore
Newman by either 22 or 23 points (depending on how the tiebreaker
falls) AND must have Buescher fall out of the top 30.
That’s
a major long shot. Kahne’s best hope is to win the race, and that’s a
scenario he’s experienced before. Back in 2014, Kahne’s win at Atlanta
in the 25th event of the season
got him into the Chase. This time, he’d have to win race No. 26 at the
track that gave him the first of his 17 career victories in 2005.
For practical purposes, Buescher will make the Chase if he loses 11 or fewer points to Ragan, his closest pursuer.
For
an outright clinch, Buescher needs to finish seventh (eighth with a lap
led, ninth with most laps led), but chances are he won’t need a top-10
run to qualify.
In
fact, the odds favor the four drivers currently in Chase-eligible
positions—Buescher, Elliott, Dillon and McMurray. To use the poker
analogy, they have the best hands going
into Richmond.
Then
again, no one expected Buescher to win the rain-shortened race at
Pocono, the victory that vaulted him into the Chase conversation.
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