There’s a clear favorite for the Sprint Cup title—Harvick

There’s a clear favorite for the Sprint Cup title—Harvick

By Reid Spencer
Sporting News NASCAR Service
(August 16, 2010)

Forget that Jimmie Johnson has won four straight NASCAR Sprint Cup titles. That’s ancient history.
One look at the relevant facts is all you need to realize that Johnson isn’t the favorite to add a fifth championship to his record run. The odds-on choice for this year’s title is Kevin Harvick.
If that may seem obvious, there are still plenty of experts giving lip service to Johnson’s chances. “He’s the favorite until someone knocks him off,” is the oft-heard platitude.
And Johnson’s No. 48 team still carries a mystique that’s difficult to dispel. The conventional wisdom is that Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus view the first 26 races of the season as a dress rehearsal for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
Under that scenario, there’s a stash of superior cars in the corner of the shop the 48 team shares with Jeff Gordon’s No. 24. When the Chase arrives, Knaus puts those cars into service, incorporating everything he has learned in the first 26 races.
And Johnson emerges from the phone booth wearing his Superman suit.
Nice story, but this year, it may be less fact and more fairy tale.
Yes, Johnson has five victories this season, tied for the series lead with Denny Hamlin, but neither Johnson nor Hamlin has won since June.
“The change to the spoiler (at Martinsville in March) did trip us up a little bit, more than we expected,” said Mark Martin, Johnson’s teammate, and that statement applies to all the Hendrick Motorsports teams.
Need proof? Hendrick drivers haven’t won on an intermediate speedway—traditionally their bread and butter—since Johnson took the checkered flag Feb. 28 at Las Vegas, with a rear wing on his car.
Uncharacteristically, the 48 team hasn’t been able to convert excellent qualifying efforts into excellent finishes. Over the past six races, Johnson boasts an average starting position of 3.8, with four starts from the second position.
His average finish over those same six races? 21.3. Hardly the results that lead to championships.
In contrast, Harvick’s average finish over the past six events is 8.8, and that includes a 34th-place result at Chicagoland, where Harvick lost 16 laps in the garage while his crew replaced the fuel pump on his No. 29 Chevrolet. That was Harvick’s worst finish since Martinsville in March and the only race in the stretch of six where he didn’t finish better than he started.
With an average finish for the entire season of 8.6, Harvick is the only driver in the series with a top-10 average—hence, his 293-point lead over second-place Gordon with three races left before the Chase field is set.
Nevertheless, Harvick is reluctant to embrace the favorite’s role. Publicly, he’d rather embrace the conventional wisdom.
“I think, over the last four years, you can look at the 48, and they’ve done the same thing and won the championship,” Harvick said after winning Sunday’s Carfax 400 at Michigan International Speedway. “Until you beat the guy that’s won the last four championships …
“You know, we’re fast enough to beat ’em, but the circumstances and all the things have to go your way over the last 10 weeks. It’s not about the whole season any more—it’s about 10 weeks.”
Neither is team owner Richard Childress willing to make an early call, though he’s certainly willing to entertain the prospect of winning a championship, a goal that has eluded him since he won his sixth title with Dale Earnhardt in 1994.
“Somebody’s has to beat Jimmie this year, and it might as well be RCR,” Childress said. “You never say, ‘We’re the team to beat.’ You’ve got to have confidence, but so many factors play in.
“We know we’re going to be a contender. That’s all we can ask for is to be a contender. If we’re that, we’ll have a shot at winning it.”
Harvick has more than a shot. Based on everything that has happened so far this year, he’s the clear favorite to unseat Johnson—whether or not he admits it.