Two races remain before the 12-driver Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup field is set. The implications are many: clinch scenarios, bonus points, bursting bubbles. It’s an exciting time, and the two-race stretch run begins with a new holiday tradition – the second Labor Day race at Atlanta Motor Speedway, the Emory Healthcare 500.
The NASCAR Nationwide Series, coming off a typically wild race in Montreal, returns to Atlanta for a Saturday night race under the lights. Kevin Harvick is the defending winner of the Great Clips 300.
The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series continues its marathon summer schedule, with its ninth consecutive weekend of race. This one’s at Kentucky Speedway on Friday night, the Built Ford Tough 225 presented by the Greater Cincinnati Ford Dealers.
NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES
On The Bubble: McMurray Closing In On 12th
Jamie McMurray, who has won two of the season’s biggest races – the Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400 – is surprisingly outside the top 12 in points.
But he’s 13th – only 100 points behind 12th-place Clint Bowyer. McMurray will have to pick up his performance at Atlanta if he hopes to close that gap. In March, he finished 29th, and in last season’s Labor Day race, he finished 28th.
Atlanta Celebrating 50th Anniversary Season
Atlanta Motor Speedway, site of the next NASCAR Sprint Cup event, on the evening of Sunday, Sept. 5, is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year.
AMS’s first year of hosting NASCAR events was 1960. The track had two races that year, won by Fireball Roberts and Bobby Johns.
Since then, the best-of-the-best have conquered, with NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt atop the wins list with nine.
More On Those Bonus Points – They’re Crucial To Championship Chances
Prior to the Chase, the 12 drivers who qualify have their point totals re-set to 5,000, whereupon 10 bonus points are tacked on for each pre-Chase race win. Those adjusted point totals establish Chase seedings.
Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have the prospective top two seeds all but locked up via five wins apiece, which would give them Chase starting totals of 5,050.
After that come Kevin Harvick and Busch with three wins apiece and potential starting totals of 5,030.
Two races remain until the Chase begins. Twenty more bonus points are there to be had.
Two Chase Spots Locked Up…Who’s Next?
Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon have already clinched berths in the 2010 Chase. A number of drivers can add their names to that coveted list. Leaving Atlanta, a driver must be 196 points ahead of 13th place to officially clinch a spot in the Chase. A few seem likely to do that; others have a chance; still others might have to wait until Richmond to cement a spot. Here’s the breakdown:
Sure Things?
There’s no such thing as a sure thing. But these guys are as close as it gets. Below are the finishing positions each driver would need to guarantee a Chase spot this weekend, regardless of how any other driver finishes:
Kyle Busch
40th or better, no laps led
42nd or better, at least one lap led
43rd or better, most laps led
Carl Edwards
21st or better, no laps led
23rd or better, at least one lap led
25th or better, most laps led
Denny Hamlin
20th or better, no laps led
22nd or better, at least one lap led
23rd or better, most laps led
Likely Candidates
Here are a few drivers who have a better than average shot at clinching this weekend:
Tony Stewart
19th or better, no led
21st or better, at least one lap led
23rd or better, most laps led
Jeff Burton
17th or better, no laps led
19th or better, at least one lap led
21st or better, most laps led
Matt Kenseth
15th or better, no laps led
17th or better, at least one lap led
19th or better, most laps led
There’s Always Richmond
Finally here are the remaining drivers who can clinch this weekend. They may have to wait until Richmond to lock up their spot:
Jimmie Johnson
10th or better, no laps led
11th or better, at least one lap led
13th or better, most laps led
Kurt Busch
9th or better, no laps led
10th or better, at least one lap led
11th or better, most laps led
Greg Biffle
4th or better, no laps led
5th or better, at least one lap led
7th or better, most laps led
Clint Bowyer
Currently 100 points ahead of 13th, Bowyer would need to gain 96 points. Therefore, there is no finish that would guarantee a Chase spot. He would need to finish strong, and get some help.
Kahne Looks To Act As Spoil Sport
Just because guys are out of the Chase hunt, doesn’t mean they’ve given up. Case in point: Kasey Kahne. Kahne is the defending winner of this race, and looks to play spoiler at Atlanta this weekend.
Another driver on spoiler alert: Dale Earnhardt Jr. Earnhardt won at Atlanta in 2004 and has a solid average finish of 12.0.
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