The Cool Down Lap: We’ve seen this Chase before

The Cool Down Lap: We’ve seen this Chase before

Deja vu.
Does this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup seem eerily familiar, as in we’ve all been here before?
There’s good reason for that. We have.
Look at the standings. Jimmie Johnson leads second-place Denny Hamlin by 36 points with six races left to decide the Cup champion. Kevin Harvick is third, 54 points back. Jeff Gordon, 85 points behind, is fourth, followed by Tony Stewart, Sunday’s race winner at Auto Club Speedway, who trails the leader by 107 points.
Flash back to the same point last year. It’s all but a carbon copy. Johnson led after winning the Fontana race, and though Hendrick Motorsports teammate Mark Martin was giving him a better run for his money at 12 points back, the standings were remarkably similar, with only the names behind Johnson shuffled by the changing fortunes of stock car racing.
Juan Pablo Montoya was third last year, 58 points back. Stewart was fourth, trailing by 84, and Gordon was the fifth, 105 points out of the lead.
We’ve all seen this picture. It’s almost as if Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus have set their GPS for the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway and are traveling the road toward a fifth straight title by the shortest and most efficient route.
Don’t think Johnson’s closest pursuers aren’t acutely aware of the way this year’s Chase is shaping up. When they’re talking about it, they sound like a chorus.
“We’re in a decent spot—we’re not in a great spot,” said Hamlin, who finished eighth Sunday.
“We need to step it up, and we’re still in striking distance in the points battle,” said Harvick, who ran seventh.
“There’s no doubt we’ve got to get better,” said Gordon, who rallied from a pit-road speeding penalty to finish ninth.
“We’re going to need some help, but we’re doing everything we can do,” Stewart said.
If you compare raw numbers, Johnson ascendancy seems almost magical. After a hiccup at New Hampshire, where he finished 25th, Johnson has consecutive results of first, second and third, for an average finish of 7.75.
Hamlin, who started the Chase 10 points ahead of Johnson (thanks to one more win in the regular season), has run second, ninth, 12th and eighth in the four Chase races for an identical average finish of 7.75.
So how in the world is Johnson 36 points ahead after four races? First, Johnson has a victory in the Chase. At Dover he scored the maximum 195 points (winning and leading the most laps) to Hamlin’s 138. Second, Johnson has accumulated 15 bonus points for leading laps in two Chase races (10 at Dover for leading the most laps and five at Fontana for leading at least one lap).
Hamlin has yet to lead a lap in the Chase.
Accordingly, those who denigrate the premium for winning and leading laps simply need to look at those numbers to gain a fresh perspective.
Clearly, the No. 48 team knows the formula for success in the Chase.
“If we can leave the racetrack with a top three each week, we’ll be where we want to be at Homestead,” Johnson said after Sunday’s race at Fontana.
Sounds like a plan. The scary thing is Johnson has been able to pull off a championship game plan for the past four years.
Deja vu.
By Reid Spencer

Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service