Top 5 and 5 to watch: Talladega

Top 5 and 5 to watch: Talladega



By Bill Marx
Sporting News NASCAR Service


Here's a look at the top five drivers in the Sprint Cup Series standings and five drivers to watch in Sunday's race at Talladega Superspeedway. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at Talladega unless otherwise indicated. Driver rating is based on the past 11 races at the track.


1. Jimmie Johnson, 83.6 driver rating. We'll say this only once—so we can get it out of the way: Johnson, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick can ill-afford to get caught up in The Big One. Saying they must avoid The Big One is pointless. What driver goes out of his way to get involved in a massive, multicar pileup? All three are skilled drivers. And that often doesn't make a difference at Talladega or Daytona. Johnson has a win and seven top 10s, but he also has seven DNFs, four for crashes. including in April.
2. Denny Hamlin, 95.9. It seems Hamlin either gets a top five—he has three—or finishes 21st or worse (six times). He has two DNFs, including when his engine failed in this race last year. An interesting stat: Hamlin has led at least one lap in all nine of his starts. All three drivers will want the bonus points for leading a lap.
3. Kevin Harvick, 75.3. Harvick has an amazing stat: He has been running at the finish of all 19 of his starts. He has a win and eight top 10s. Harvick got the win in April, and his car is powered by an Earnhardt-Childress engine, the top power plant right now. Harvick has been eager to get to Talladega ; he sees it as a top opportunity to gain on Johnson.
4. Kyle Busch, 79.7. Although Busch has a win, he has but two top 10s in 11 starts (he finished ninth in April). He's competitive at Talladega ; he just doesn't get the finishes. He has led laps in the past six races. Busch's interesting stat: All four of his DNFs (three for crashes) came when he was driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
5. Jeff Gordon, 86.0. Gordon is the top restrictor-plate racer in NASCAR history and has led the most laps in the past 11 races at the track—320 (15.3 percent). But even the top guy isn't immune to misfortune at Talladega . He has eight DNFs—four for crashes—to go with his six wins.


Five to watch:


8. Jeff Burton, 87.1. Burton is the fastest driver in traffic this season in the Cup series, and he has an Earnhardt-Childress engine under the hood. He led a race-high 28 laps in April and still finished 32nd (caught up in one of the race's three Big Ones). If he has better luck, a third straight top five in this race is not out of the question.
9. Kurt Busch, 85.0. Busch is known as the best restrictor-plate driver without a win. He has 13 top 10s in 19 starts at Talladega , and 11 in 20 starts at Daytona. Fifteen of those 24 top 10s are top fives. No driver has scored more points in the past 11 Talladega races (1,466) than Busch, and his 12.2 average finish is tops, too. He is past due for a win at Talladega .
13. Jamie McMurray, 84.4. Half of McMurray's six career wins are on restrictor-plate tracks, including this race last year and the Daytona 500 in February. He finished second in April and will be a favorite Sunday. In addition to being adept at plate tracks, McMurray benefits from an Earnhardt-Childress engine.
17. Joey Logano, 85.3. Logano has the eighth-best driver rating. The final Big One in April swallowed up Logano and gave him his first DNF in three starts. His first two starts were a third and a ninth. He is driving very well right now with an 8.8 average finish in his past five starts. The kid can be a factor.
24. David Ragan, 92.5. Yes, David Ragan. It's not a mistake. He has the third-best driver rating, and he has shown a lot of life with new crew chief Drew Blickensderfer. Toss out his one DNF three years ago for a crash, and Ragan's worst finish in his other six starts is 17th (twice). He was sixth in April and fourth and third in 2008. If you're a fantasy player, Ragan and Logano are worth looks.