Top 5 and 5 to watch: Phoenix

Top 5 and 5 to watch: Phoenix


By Bill Marx
Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service

Here's a look at the top five drivers in the Sprint Cup Series standings and five drivers to watch in Sunday's race at Phoenix International Raceway. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at Phoenix unless otherwise indicated. Driver rating is based on the past 11 races at the track.

1. Denny Hamlin, 95.2 driver rating. Hamlin finished 30th in April in his first race after knee surgery. Forget that. What's more important is what he did in the four previous races in the desert: 3rd, 5th, 6th and 3rd. He has five top 10s in 10 starts and will challenge for a win Sunday. But if it's not there, his focus will be finishing ahead of Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick. He should go to Homestead with the lead.
2. Jimmie Johnson, 123.7. Johnson's numbers are dynamite: Four wins and nine top fives in 14 starts. He hasn't finished worse than fourth in more than four years. Johnson trails Hamlin by 33 points and badly needs max points—the win, plus leading the most laps for the extra bonus points—to have any shot at a fifth straight title. Banking on Hamlin having a mediocre day is a waste of time.
3. Kevin Harvick, 94.6. Harvick is 59 points behind Hamlin, and he needs the same thing Johnson does. But for Harvick to win the championship, Hamlin and Johnson need to mess up. That's asking a lot. Both of Harvick's wins came in 2006, and he has been inconsistent since. He finished 13th in April but should finish better Sunday. Much better. It might not be enough, though.
4. Carl Edwards, 98.6. It's down for two races for Edwards to get his first win since 2008. He has a better shot next week at Homestead , where he is much stronger. He is winless with eight top 10s in 12 starts at Phoenix .
5. Matt Kenseth, 83.3. Kenseth finished a strong second last week for his second runner-up finish of the year. Like Roush Fenway Racing teammate Edwards, Kenseth is winless this year and has a long winless streak—his last win was in the second race of 2009. Kenseth's one win at Phoenix was in 2002. His sixth-place finish in April was his first top 10 since 2007.

5 to watch
6. Jeff Gordon, 101.1. Gordon finished second in April, and although he has only one win in 23 starts, he has 17 top 10s. The tight racing on the 1-mile track will provide plenty of opportunities for Gordon to be near his new sparring partner, Jeff Burton. But Gordon's winless streak hit 63 races last week, and getting a win is much more important than messing around with Burton . Plus, his pit crew is motivated.
7. Kyle Busch, 94.8. I just can't put a finger on why I think Busch will be motivated this week. Oh, yes I can. Even on his best behavior, Busch can get the job done. His only top five is a win in 2005, his rookie year, but he has six other top 10s in his 11 starts. As always, it'll be fun watching Busch, who is a showman at heart.
13. Mark Martin, 102.3. Martin has come alive in the final weeks of the season. He finished third last week for his second top five in three races. And since finishing 29th at Loudon, he hasn't finished worse than 14th. His driver rating is second only to Johnson, and he has two wins and 12 top fives in 27 starts. Three of those top fives have come in the past three races.
16. Joey Logano, 73.4. If what we are seeing from Logano during the Chase is a preview of 2011, Joe Gibbs Racing will have three cars in next year's Chase. Logano has five top 10s during the Chase, four in the past for races. He finished fifth at Talladega and fourth last week at Texas , the first time in his career he has posted consecutive top fives. His one top 10 in three starts was in April.
18. David Reutimann, 73.3. Reutimann has four top 10s during the Chase, including a strong fourth-place run at Talladega . Reutimann needs one more top 10 to tie his career high, which he set last year. Two top 10s and he sets a personal best. There are two races left. Hmmm. Reutimann is driving well and there's a big carrot out there. He has two top 10s in six starts, including 10th in this race last year.