What to look for in Sunday's AAA Texas 500

Three-wide: What to look for in Sunday's AAA Texas 500 1. One by the wayside. Odds say one of the three Sprint Cup title frontrunners—Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin or Kevin Harvick—will have a less than stellar showing in the Lone Star State . Harvick, third in points and 38 behind Johnson, would suffer most from trouble on the track.
2. Can lightning strike twice? That's what Johnson's foes are wondering. Last year, Sam Hornish Jr. wiped out the No. 48 Chevy in a Lap 3 crash. At that point, Johnson had a big enough Chase lead to shrug off the calamity. This year, there's no margin for error.
3. Sweep makes a statement. The best way for Hamlin to seize control of the Chase is to back up his April win at Texas with another Sunday. The spring race at Texas was Hamlin's second event after knee surgery to repair the ACL in his left knee. He comes to Texas in the fall 100 percent healthy and loaded for bear. — Reid Spencer


Past winners of Chase races at Texas
2005: Carl Edwards
2006: Tony Stewart
2007: Jimmie Johnson
2008: Carl Edwards
2009: Kurt Busch


The last time around: Hamlin wins wild shootout
April 19, 2010: Still recovering from surgery on March 31 to repair the ACL in his left knee, Denny Hamlin took advantage of a wild late-race wreck that eliminated several of the fastest cars—including the dominant Chevrolet of Jeff Gordon—and held off fast-closing Jimmie Johnson to win the Samsung Mobile 500.
Hamlin surged into the lead past Jeff Burton after a restart on Lap 323 of 334. Johnson restarted fifth and dropped back in traffic before making a stirring charge in the final six laps.
With the surgery behind him, Hamlin vaulted from 18th to 11th in the Cup standings and reaffirmed his status as a contender for the series title.
"This is not the type of racetrack people characterize us being strong at," said Hamlin, who completed 376 laps at Phoenix last week, 10 days after the ACL operation. "They always say we're a short-track team. When we won Homestead last year, it was a sign of things to come.
"I know we've got some good racecars in our stable. We're just going to keep getting better and keep working toward the Chase, and hopefully by the time we get there, we'll peak."
The victory was a bonus, considering that Hamlin opted to sacrifice his performance in the spring to get ready for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, the 10-race playoff that starts in September at New Hampshire .
"I did it for the long run," Hamlin said of the surgery. "I did it for the Chase. I did it for the championship. … I'm still not 100 percent by any means. I feel like I'm 60 (percent) at best. We're still a month away from getting back where we were." — Reid Spencer