Dale Jr. Hits ’Dega

Dale Jr. Hits ’Dega
This weekend’s script reads like a blockbuster, and it’s not as far-fetched as some would think.
NASCAR’s most popular driver returns to his most prolific track, Talladega Superspeedway – a site at which a recent poll stated that a whopping 2/3rds of local fans ranked him as their favorite driver.
That driver – it’s Dale Earnhardt Jr., of course – has a perfectly round winless drought: 100 races. That’s a career-long stretch for a driver with a hefty 18 career wins.
He owns the statistics that make him a favorite at the 2.66-mile track: five wins, a second-best Driver Rating of 92.7 and laps led in the last 10 races, and in 20 of 22 career starts overall.
The last 100 races have not been kind to Earnhardt, but 2011 has a different feel. Earnhardt has finished in the top 10 in two consecutive races, and four of the last six.
He is currently sixth in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points standings, the highest he has been this late in the season since 2008. That season, he won his last race, and made his last Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
Earnhardt’s Talladega runs have dipped in recent years. From 2001 until 2004, he posted eight consecutive top-10 finishes. Five of those were wins. Two others were runner-up finishes.
Since then, he has four DNFs and six finishes outside the top 20.
Talladega: New Leader, The Field (Practically)
Whenever a lead change takes place on the race track, the NASCAR control tower announces it thusly: “New Leader, the [car number].”
There were many such announcements at the two Talladega races last season. The April race had an all-time NASCAR record 88 lead changes; the October race had 87. The October race got off to a quick start – there were 10 lead changes in the first 10 laps.
The record for number of different leaders was also broken last April – 29 different drivers led at least one lap.
Figure on a similar ratio this weekend. The lead change and leader records both fell in the season’s first restrictor plate race – the Daytona 500. That jump-started a season that has already seen three races with records in lead changes, and another – Texas, last weekend – that came two lead changes short of tying the record.
Many competition numbers are highs through seven races. For instance …
• There has been an average of 13 leaders per race, most through seven races in series history.
• There has been an average of 31.4 lead changes per race, most through seven races in series history.
• There have been six different winners in the first seven races, most since 2003.
• There has been an average of 3,581 green flag passes all around the track per race, most through seven races since the inception of Loop Data in 2005.
• There has been an average of 39 green flag passes for the lead all around the track per race, second-most through seven races since the inception of Loop Data in 2005.
Childress Drivers Have Hot Hand At Talladega – For Now
Since Richard Childress drove in the inaugural race at Talladega Superspeedway in 1969 – finishing 23rd – perhaps it’s appropriate that his cars would be among the favorites to win Sunday’s Aaron’s 499.
Richard Childress Racing swept both Talladega races a year ago, breaking a nine-year ’Dega drought that followed Dale Earnhardt’s Winston 500 victory in the fall of 2000.
Kevin Harvick won last spring’s Aaron’s 499 and narrowly missed a sweep as RCR teammate Clint Bowyer grabbed the lead on the final lap of the track’s fall race. Click here for a video of Harvick discussing Talladega.
Ironically, Harvick and Bowyer are the only drivers out of the RCR stable besides Earnhardt to score a Talladega victory. Nine of Earnhardt’s 10 Talladega triumphs were with RCR, bringing the team’s total to 11 – most by any owner at the 2.66-mile Alabama track.
Winning plate races is an ebb-and-flow proposition. Childress’ organization has the hot hand at present with three victories in the past four races at Talladega and Daytona. Harvick also won the 2007 Daytona 500 and posted back-to-back Budweiser Shootout victories in 2009-10.
Six times in this decade a team has swept both Talladega races: Childress in 2010, Joe Gibbs Racing in 2008, Hendrick Motorsports in 2006-07 and Dale Earnhardt Inc. in 2002-03.
RCR has won the Aaron’s 499 four times.
Whether Harvick or Bowyer can do a Talladega double, however, is open to question. Talladega hasn’t seen a repeat winner in its past seven races. Jeff Gordon was the last to win Talladega back-to-back, taking both races in 2007. Six different drivers have found Victory Lane since then.
How Long Will Roush Fenway Dominance Last?
Roush Fenway Racing put all four of its drivers in the top seven this past weekend at Texas Motor Speedway, including winner Matt Kenseth.
Statistically speaking, don’t count on that happening again this Sunday at Talladega. With a team-wide average finish of 18.9 at Talladega, the track ranks as RFR’s worst. Its Driver Rating there is 75.6, making Talladega its second-worst track in terms of the Loop Data stat behind Watkins Glen (75.3).
Some quick hits on the team’s Talladega struggles…
• Last year, only one Roush Fenway driver finished in the top 10 in either Talladega race: David Ragan, 6th in April.
• Jamie McMurray, who is no longer with the team, is the last RFR driver to win at Talladega (Nov. 1, 2009). Prior to that, RFR’s last Talladega win was by Mark Martin in May of 1997.
• Since 2007, 38 Roush Fenway Racing cars have entered at Talladega; seven have placed in the top 10.
• Those seven top 10s have come from three drivers: Dave Ragan (three), Jamie McMurray (two), and Greg Biffle (two). None from points leader Carl Edwards or third-place Kenseth.
Call Of The “Wild”: New Chase Format Could Help Some Big Guns
A number of preseason favorites are in serious danger of falling out of Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup contention. But with the new Chase format, these drivers can still rely on the two “Wild Card” spots. After race No. 26, the top 10 drivers in points will earn a Chase berth. Spots 11 and 12 will go to the drivers with the most wins, provided they are in the top 20 in points. Some big names might have to use that as a last resort…
Denny Hamlin, 20th: This is Hamlin’s lowest points position through seven races in his six-year career. The good news: His Talladega Driver Rating of 93.0 tops the charts. Hamlin has led at least one lap in all 10 of his Talladega starts.
Jamie McMurray, 24th: McMurray has been outside the top 20 after seven races in three of the last four seasons (last year, he was 20th). At Talladega, he has a win in 2009, and a runner-up finish in last year’s Aaron’s 499.
Jeff Burton, 25th: This is the first time that Burton has been outside the top 12 after seven races (he led the points in 2008). With a Talladega Driver Rating of 87.8, Burton ranks fifth.
Joey Logano, 28th: At this point last year, Logano was 11th in the points standings. He ranks fourth in Driver Rating at Talladega (89.1), and has finished in the top 10 in three of his four Talladega races.
NSCS
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series teams have been notified that they will be using a 7/8 inch diameter restrictor plate to prepare and practice for the event at Talladega. It will be a slight reduction in restrictor plate size from Daytona (by 1/64 inch). … All of the other adjustments that were made at Daytona with the cooling systems will remain intact – maximum radiator air inlet size will be three inches x 20 inches wide (as it was for the Daytona 500). … Michael Waltrip will attempt his first NASCAR Sprint Cup race since the season-opening Daytona 500. If he makes the field, it’ll be his 50th start at Talladega. … Kyle Busch, who failed to lead a single lap at Texas last weekend, still needs 117 laps to reach 20,000 laps led for his NASCAR national series career.