SPRINT CUP NOTEBOOK

7/20/11  Rare Stakes: Next Win Could Mean Chase Spot, Big BucksOn a list of important activities, NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers rank winning somewhere between eating and breathing.
Yet, starting next weekend in Indianapolis, victories will grow in stature – possibly a million times over.
Here’s why …
Only seven races remain before the 12-driver Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup field is set. After race No. 26 at Richmond, the top-10 drivers will be locked in the Chase. Spots 11 and 12 will go to those drivers outside the top 10 with the most wins, provided they are in the top 20. Currently, only one driver ranked 11-20 has a win (David Ragan), so there’s a very real possibility that a victory will turn into a playoff appearance.
For those in the top 10, a win could mean bonus points. After Richmond, all Chase drivers will have their points reset to 2,000. But only the top 10 drivers will get three bonus points for each victory they had in the regular season.
Then there’s the major program from series title sponsor Sprint – the Sprint Summer Showdown presented by HTC EVO 3D. Any driver who wins between Indianapolis and Bristol (the next five races) will become a finalist for the Labor Day weekend race in Atlanta, the AdvoCare 500. If one of those eligible drivers wins the Atlanta race, then the driver, the driver’s charity and one lucky race fan each collect $1,000,000. Fans can enter for their shot at $1,000,000 each week at sprint.com/speed.
So, simply put, a win has rarely ever been so important.
Judging by this season, the remaining race winners are anybody’s guess. There have been 13 different winners in the 19 races this season – matching the total of all 36 races last season.
And yet, six winners from last year remain winless this season. Four of those drivers are outside the top 10, and inside the top 20. Consider them poster boys for the Wild Card.
Tony Stewart, 11th in points: Though in a points tie for 10th place, Stewart loses the tie breaker. Denny Hamlin gets the nod via his win at Michigan. Figure Stewart will either land a top 10 spot – and a win. He’ll be one-to-watch at both Indianapolis (where he has two wins) and Watkins Glen (a series-high five wins). The defending champion at Atlanta, he has to be the Sprint Summer Showdown favorite.
Clint Bowyer, 12th in points: Bowyer has struggled of late, coming off three consecutive finishes outside the top 10. His average finish in the last three: 29.3. If he can sneak into the Chase, watch out. Both his wins last season came during NASCAR’s playoffs (Talladega and New Hampshire).
Greg Biffle, 15th in points: One of the two drivers in this category with a new crew chief – Matt Puccia. Biffle had two wins last season, including Pocono, which awaits in three weeks.
Juan Pablo Montoya, 17th in points: Montoya’s Earnhardt Ganassi Racing team announced a crew chief change on Tuesday. Jim Pohlman, who has been with the team since 2006, takes over. Montoya is the defending champion at Watkins Glen, which comes up next month.
David Reutimann, 24th in points: Solid on intermediate tracks, both of Reutimann’s career wins (Charlotte and Chicagoland) have come on tracks 1.5-mile in length. Two intermediate ovals await between now and the Chase: Michigan and Atlanta.
Jamie McMurray, 29th in points: At the outset of 2011, McMurray was the darling pick for a Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup spot. Thus far, that prediction hasn’t panned out. There’s reason for optimism: He won the next race on the schedule last season – Indianapolis.
A couple other notes on the competition coming out of New Hampshire and heading into the final open week of the season …
- Four manufacturers make up top five in the points standings.
- The top-five drivers in points all represent different teams.
- The New Hampshire race flirted with records for leaders and leaders. There were 14 different leaders and 21 lead changes. The two records: 15 leaders and 23 lead changes.
- 2011 stayed atop the record books, with an average of 14 leaders and 30 lead changes per race, all-time series highs through 19 races.

A New King Crowned In 2011?
By recent standards, Jimmie Johnson isn’t exactly having a championship season. Yes, the five-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion ranks second in the standings (and he’s only seven points out of first) after 19 races. But statistics can be deceiving – especially in light of his pit crew issues following a come-from-behind top-five finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Johnson only has one victory this season, at Talladega, and was .002 seconds (the MOV) from going O-fer in 2011.
Johnson knows he and his Hendrick Motorsports team will have to do better if championship No. 6 is in the cards in 2011.
At least three rivals have to believe they can dethrone Johnson:
• Kyle Busch dropped from first to fourth after New Hampshire tire trouble. But he has two more wins than Johnson – three – and has more than doubled the champion in laps led. Busch leads virtually every Loop Data category this season.
• Kevin Harvick, one of Johnson’s primary antagonists during last year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, also has out-paced the champion with three victories – wins that will translate into crucial bonus points – three for each victory – at the beginning of this year’s Chase.
• Carl Edwards is the current points leader, a position he’s occupied through the majority of the season. Edwards is both fast and consistent, matching Busch in top fives (10) and leading the series in top-10 finishes with 13.
• Kurt Busch is the highest-ranked (third) former champion in the current top 10 not named Johnson. Busch, winner at Infineon Raceway, potentially is headed for his best season since joining Penske Motorsports adding three Coors Light Poles to a log of 11 top 10s.
With nine of the current top 10 having won at least one race – and the final two Chase spots seeding by “wild card” victories, it’s doubtful anyone will limp into this year’s championship playoff. Although Denny Hamlin started slowly – he didn’t win until last month in Michigan – last year’s runner-up to Johnson has led seven of the last eight races. Hamlin has come all the way from 20th to 10th entering next week’s Brickyard 400 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Earnhardt Has Work To Do To Wrestle A Chase Berth
There’s good and bad news for fans of Dale Earnhardt Jr., and there are a few.
First the good: he’s in the top 10 (ninth) with seven races remaining in the Race to the Chase.
The bad: Based on recent finishes, Earnhardt will struggle to stay there – his points cushion from the Chase cutoff has shrunk from 71 after Pocono to just seven.
Even worse: He’s the only member of the current top 10 without a victory and thus no current Wild Card entry into the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
Earnhardt four times in 2011 ranked as high as third in the points, most recently following last month’s race at Pocono Raceway, where he finished sixth.
Since then, Earnhardt has finished in the top 15 just once with two runs of 30th or worse.
With a pair of runner-up finishes earlier in the season, it’s not a stretch to say that Earnhardt (a) can break a 112-race winless streak and (b) can qualify for the Chase either through ranking or Wild Card. Of the seven tracks remaining, Earnhardt has won on four: Atlanta, Bristol, Michigan and Richmond.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Etc. – Off Week
During the last off-week of the season, four-time NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Jeff Gordon will be visiting Africa on a goodwill, fact-finding trip. He will join a group (including actress Ashley Judd) put together by the Clinton Global Initiative to visit a refugee camp in the Congo. Gordon is also trying to schedule a trip to Rwanda in the offseason on behalf of the Jeff Gordon Children's Foundation. He has been documenting his trip on his personal Twitter account: @JeffGordonWeb. … Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski are two drivers who will not be taking the weekend off, but rather competing in the NASCAR Nationwide Series event at Nashville Superspeedway. … Up Next: The series heads to Indianapolis Motor Speedway where Jeff Gordon leads the series in wins (four) and poles (three). Gordon, Jeff Burton, Bobby Labonte and Mark Martin are the only four active drivers to compete in all 17 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at IMS. … Tony Stewart has made 12 starts at Indianapolis and leads the series with the best average finish with an 8.2. … Joey Logano is heating up. He has scored more points than any other driver in the last four races (151); he is now 18th in the standings, vying for one of the Wild Card spots to make the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Of course, he’ll need a win to land one.