Blazing Keselowski Closes On Improbable Top-10 Ranking

Blazing Keselowski Closes On Improbable Top-10 Ranking

 

Six races ago Brad Keselowski was 23rd in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series standings, 95 points behind 10th-place Denny Hamlin and holding a victory that might have been worthless had he stayed outside of the top 20 in the standings.

Heading to Atlanta Motor Speedway for Sunday’s AdvoCare 500, Keselowski is on the cusp of accomplishing the improbable if not downright impossible.

His third victory of the season last weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway gives Keselowski a near lock on one of two wild card spots in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, which begins Sept. 18 at Chicagoland Speedway.

By stringing wins at Pocono and Bristol among four consecutive top-three finishes in the past four races, the 27-year-old Michigan native has erased all but 21 points of his post-New Hampshire deficit. He’s closing on the top 10 – and an automatic Chase berth – at the rate of 19 points per race beginning with a ninth-place performance in the Brickyard 400.

The Top-10 Picture: Locking up a place in the postseason is every athlete’s dream – especially if it’s done early. Five drivers accomplished that goal at Bristol Motor Speedway, locking up one of 10 guaranteed positions in this season’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick comprise the Fortunate Five. Each was part of last year’s Chase. Johnson, bidding for his sixth consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup title, is the only driver to qualify for all eight Chases since the championship format was adopted in 2004.

Though unlikely, the rest of the top-10 spots can mathematically be clinched in Atlanta. Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch – winner of the 2004 title in the first season of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup – are the most likely candidates. All three control their own destiny.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart, ninth and 10th, remain on the bubble. Earnhardt is 39 points to the good while Stewart leads 11th place Keselowski and 12th place Clint Bowyer by 21 and 22 points, respectively.

And Then They Reset: Point position is important but the big picture, at least when the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup begins, are bonus points that determine seeding. Each win by a top-10 driver qualifying for the Chase is worth three points and will be added to a base of 2,000 points following next week’s Race to the Chase finale at Richmond International Raceway.

With six more points available – three at Atlanta, three at Richmond – Busch is the provisional No. 1 seed with four wins. Harvick has won three times; Kenseth two. Gordon, should he clinch a top-10 spot, is the only other multiple winner.

The Wild, Wild (Card) East: The bad news for Keselowski should he fall short of the top 10 and qualify for his first Chase as a wild card driver is he’ll forfeit a potential nine points – his three wins – since wild card entrants don’t get bonus points in the re-seeding.

The wild card picture, however, gets wilder if the Penske Racing driver knocks down the top-10 door.

Denny Hamlin, with his victory in June’s race at Michigan, would be the first wild card (and second if Keselowski remains outside the top 10). Hamlin, last year’s runner up to Johnson, ranks 13th.

Should only one winner among the top 20 be eligible, the best-placed non-winner in the standings would gain the final wild card. Right now that would be Bowyer.

Sprint Summer Showdown Throws Down: Four drivers – Marcos Ambrose, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Paul Menard – have qualified for Sunday’s Sprint Summer Showdown Presented by HTC EVO™ 3D. Now it remains to be seen if one of the four can win the AdvoCare 500 and claim the $3 million bonus to be split equally among driver, driver’s charity and a lucky fan. Keselowski will be racing for two fans, who would receive $500,000 each.

 

‘Five-Time’, Kyle Busch Getting Ready For Chase Rumble 

 

Without a doubt, the run-up to the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup is taking on all the trappings of a heavyweight championship bout.

In one corner, the five-time and defending champion Jimmie Johnson. In the other, Kyle Busch, whose four 2011 victories top all comers. The pair shares the same number of points – 830 – with the tie broken in favor of Busch’s wins.

History suggests the two could go down to next month’s Chase kickoff at Chicagoland Speedway one-two in the standings, although the reset – three bonus points per victory added to a base of 2,000 each top-10 driver – currently favors Busch.

Both competitors have victories at Atlanta Motor Speedway (Johnson three; Busch one), site of Sunday’s AdvoCare 500. Likewise, Johnson and Busch have won at Richmond International Raceway as well.

Where do they stand once the Chase begins? If we’re talking victories, the odds shift to Johnson.

•           Johnson’s 53 NASCAR Sprint Cup victories include wins at eight of the 10 tracks comprising this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. He’s missing only Chicagoland – where Busch beat him on an epic restart in 2008 – and Homestead-Miami Speedway.

•           Busch, with 23 wins since joining NASCAR’s premier series in 2004, is five-for-10 in wins at Chase tracks. He continues to hunt for the checkered flag at Charlotte, Homestead, Kansas, Martinsville and Texas.

 

Stewart’s Chase Chances May Hinge On Atlanta Victory Defense

 

This has not been a Tony Stewart kind of season and the two-time NASCAR Sprint Cup champion could be skating on the brink of Chase extinction. Stewart is on track to suffer his first winless season since joining the series in 1999.

He’s also finished outside the top 25 in two of his last three starts and hasn’t led a lap over the past five races.

Tenth in the points standings, Stewart has a 21-point cushion with two races remaining before the top 10 and wild card qualifiers for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup are determined. That’s basically half a race, comfortable except for several things:

•           The current 11th-place driver, Brad Keselowski, won last weekend at Bristol and has gained 12 positions from 23rd over the past five races.

•           Clint Bowyer also remains very much in the mix standing 12th, a single point behind Keselowski.

So where does “Smoke” go from here? Best answer: defend his 2010 AdvoCare 500 victory.

A win helps Stewart two ways. It helps him solidify his top-10 perch and add bonus points to his total when the standings are reset. And, if Keselowski or Bowyer ultimately overtakes him, Stewart would be in a prime position to claim one of two wild card Chase entries.

 

Jeff Gordon Has Made The Most Of The Race To The Chase

 

Four time series champion Jeff Gordon has been on a roll during the Race to the Chase. In the last eight races leading up to this weekend, Gordon has scored the most points with 302. The rest of the top-five, highest point-scoring drivers in the Race to the Chase are as follows: Kyle Busch is second with 294; third is Brad Keselowski with 291; fourth is Jimmie Johnson with 290 and fifth is Ryan Newman with 287 points scored during this season’s Race to the Chase.

Gordon is currently sixth in the standings, 48 points behind first, having posted two wins (Phoenix-1, Pocono-1), eight top fives, 12 top 10s and one Coors Light pole (Talladega). He is coming off a dominating performance at Bristol where he led the most laps (206) and finished third.

Look for Gordon to continue his late season success this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The series veteran has made 37 starts at the 1.54-mile speedway posting four wins (1995, ‘98, ‘99, and ‘03), 14 top fives and 23 top 10s. His average starting position at Atlanta is 12.6 and his average finish is 12.4.

Gordon (100.6) is one of only four drivers heading into this weekend at Atlanta with a pre-race Driver Rating of 100.0 or more.

 

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Etc. 

 

Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle will race to determine the 2011 “Official Small Business of NASCAR, Courtesy of Office Depot” this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway and possibly deliver a $1 million payday to one of two finalists. Stewart will feature the logo of one finalist on his No. 14 Office Depot Chevrolet, while Biffle will carry the logo of a second finalist on his No. 16 3M Ford. The small business featured on the highest-finishing driver’s car will be named the 2011 “Official Small Business of NASCAR, Courtesy of Office Depot,” and if Stewart or Biffle wins the race, the small business on the winning car will walk away with $1 million. Both finalists receive a $10,000 small business makeover from Office Depot and a VIP experience this weekend. … Upcoming milestones: Matt Kenseth will make his 425th series start, David Gilliland will make his 175th series start and Joey Logano will make his 100th series start.