Can Johnson March One Step Closer To Seven?

Can Johnson March One Step Closer To Seven?

 

Jimmie Johnson’s unrivaled string of five consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup Series titles befuddles all. Every year since Johnson matched Cale Yarborough’s record of three-straight titles, the question to start the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup has been: Can someone steal Johnson’s crown? The answer each time, of course, was no.

Again, the question is posed, this time with the meter inching toward the affirmative. Competitors know the task is tough. His statistics over the 70 Chase races easily rank atop each key list: 19 wins (more than the second and third-most combined), 40 top fives, 54 top 10s, 3,423 laps led, a Driver Rating of 110.1 and an Average Running Position of 9.9.

But optimism among his competitors remains this year – maybe more than prior seasons. A stout Chase field is one reason. A possible “down” regular season for Johnson is another.

Johnson enters this Chase with one victory, the fewest of any of his seven previous Chase appearances (he’s the only driver to make all eight Chases). Where 2011 ranks for Johnson in some other categories…

Top 5s: No dip. His 11 top fives are his third-highest total entering a Chase. Most was 15 in 2004.

Top 10s: His 17 top 10s are the second-highest total entering a Chase. Most was 18 in 2006, his first championship season.

Laps Led: Comparatively low. It’s the lowest total since 2006 (368) and the first time he did not crack 900 laps led in five years. Most was 1,252 in 2009.

Driver Rating: This might be the most glaring dip. Though solid, his 2011 Driver Rating of 95.4 is the lowest since 2005, the first season for the Loop Data statistics. His previous four regular seasons have all been at 103.9 or higher. Best was 110.3 in 2009.

 

Spoiler Alert: Outsiders Rarely Crash Chase Party 

 

Beginning this weekend, most eyes will be focused on the 12 drivers who qualified for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. While the remainder of the 43-car field won’t be forgotten completely, the “outsiders’ ” only hope for recognition comes in form of one word: spoiler.

Nothing can completely salve the sting of missing the Chase, but a win – and taking a few points away from the anointed 12 drivers – certainly can make a driver’s day.

While spoilers accumulated 10 wins from 2004-06, their successes have been few and far between over the past four seasons. Just three non-Chase qualifiers went to Victory Lane from 2007-10:

•          Jamie McMurray won at Charlotte Motor Speedway a year ago.

•          McMurray was victorious at Talladega Superspeedway in 2009.

•          Greg Biffle was the Kansas winner in 2007.

Chicagoland offers hope to the non-qualifiers. The track’s past two winners, David Reutimann and Mark Martin, failed to qualify for this year’s Chase.

 

Banner Regular Season A Perfect Chase Lead-In

 

If the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup follows the form of the season’s first 26 races, it’s going to be a banner postseason.

No driver or team had a lock on Victory Lane. The season’s 15 different winners – most through 26 races since 2003 – represented nine different organizations.

Joe Gibbs Racing and Richard Childress Racing boasted five wins apiece and not surprisingly provide the numbers one and two seeds, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, in this year’s Chase. Only five drivers have been able to win more than once.

At the other end of the spectrum, there have been five first-time winners, three of whom picked the sport’s largest stages upon which to record their victories: Trevor Bayne in the Daytona 500, Regan Smith in the SHOWTIME Southern 500 and Paul Menard in the Brickyard 400.

There was speculation that under the new points system it would be impossible to recover from early season disappointment. Brad Keselowski blew that theory away with a red-hot August containing two wins and four consecutive top-five finishes that boosted him from 22nd to 11th and into the Chase as the first Wild Card qualifier.

Here are some other interesting facts about the 2011 season so far:

•          Six different organizations qualified drivers for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup

•          All four series manufacturers qualified for the Chase, led by Chevrolet with six drivers

•          An average of 28 different leaders per race, most through 26 races in series history

•          16 races had a margin of victory under a second, most through 26 races since 2001. That includes Talladega’s MOV of 0.002 seconds, which tied the closest finish since the inception of electronic scoring in 1993

•          16 different Coors Light Pole winners, most through 26 races since 2005