Smoke, Junior Go From Cellar Dwellers To Top Dogs

Smoke, Junior Go From Cellar Dwellers To Top Dogs

This doesn’t make much sense, but: Two of NASCAR’s most talked about and most thought about drivers – Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr. – entered the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup with little discussion, and mostly as afterthoughts.

They were the only two Chase drivers without a win – as such, they were seeded ninth and 10th in the 12-driver Chase (per rule, 11th and 12th seeds went to the two Wild Cards, regardless of win total).

Despite a top 10 regular season finish, there were stretches where both Stewart (a two-time series champion) and Earnhardt (eight-time Most Popular Driver) looked like they would vanish from Chase consideration.

But they didn’t. And now, after the Chase opener at Chicagoland Speedway, both seem like legitimate championship threats. A run down for both…

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s last top-five finish came in early June, over three months ago. Entering the Chase, seven of his previous nine finishes were outside the top 20.

As they ran in Richmond, there were laps where Earnhardt held just a three point advantage over 11th. The possibility of missing the Chase altogether was very real.

So his third-place finish at Chicagoland surprised many. It was his best finish in a Chase race since a runner-up at Martinsville in 2008. As far as Chase openers go, it was his best finish since 2004, when he also started with a third-place finish. He finished the season fifth in points.

Earnhardt now sits fifth in points – up from 10th – just 13 points off the lead.

Count on continued immediate success for Earnhardt. He ranks fifth in pre-race Driver Rating at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (97.1) and has two top 10s in the last three races there. He finished 15th in July’s stop at NHMS.

Tony Stewart

Stewart had never won the opening Chase race, but successful starts are the norm for Smoke. In four of the previous seven Chases, Stewart finished in the top 10. In three, he finished in the top three – including two runner-ups (one in 2005, his second championship season).

His Monday win at Chicagoland (his third at the track) drummed up a number of notable bullets…

-           It catapulted him from ninth to second in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series point standings. He’s now just seven points behind leader Kevin Harvick.

-           He now has at least one victory in 13 consecutive seasons. Richard Petty owns the record for most consecutive seasons with a win, at 18.

-           He is the 16th different winner this season, most through 27 races since 2003, and three short of the all-time record of 19.

Like Earnhardt, Stewart likely won’t slow his roll. He owns a series-best pre-race Driver Rating of 114.0 at NHMS, has two wins, and runner-up finishes in two of the last three NHMS races. He came within a couple of miles of winning last year’s New Hampshire race, only to run out of the gas with two laps remaining – while in the lead.

For Some, The Chase Starts Now

A strong Chase start means little. Or everything. Really, it depends on the driver. Only one eventual champion won the first Chase race: Kurt Busch in 2004. Then you have Jimmie Johnson, who finished 39th in the Chase opener of 2006 and 25th to start the Chase last year. He won both year’s championships.

But here’s how competitive this Chase is. On the far side of the post-race points standings sheet, is a column labeled G/L, signifying the number of points positions gained or lost from the prior week. On the Chicagoland sheet, one driver (Denny Hamlin) gained zero positions. Four lost positions: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon.

Four of those drivers were the rare few Chasers who finished outside the top 10. Johnson finished 10th, and still lost spots. In other words, it’s top 10 – and maybe even top five – or bust.

Here’s good news for the aforementioned drivers who had so-so Chicagoland races: Race No. 2 in the Chase might be more indicative of things to come. In four of the seven Chase’s, the eventual champion finished in the top five in race No. 2 – and Johnson won each of the last two.

An outlook for each of the possible Comeback Kids…

Jimmie Johnson: With three victories and top-10 finishes in eight of the last nine New Hampshire races, Johnson will likely move upward in the points standings once again.

Kyle Busch: Busch was a hard-luck 22nd-place finisher at Chicagoland (he ran out of gas, and had to pit). He has one New Hampshire win, and top 10s in four of the last six races there.

Matt Kenseth: Likewise, an empty gas tank and an illegal push from JJ Yeley dropped Kenseth to 21st at Chicagoland. His NHMS statistics are a tad worrisome. His average finish over the last seven (all finishes outside the top 10): 23.3.

Jeff Gordon: A three-time winner at New Hampshire, Gordon has top-10 finishes in two of the last three races. He also has led more laps at NHMS than any other driver: 1,226.

Denny Hamlin: Now 41 points behind leader Kevin Harvick after a 31st-place finish at Chicagoland, Hamlin has finished third and second in his last two New Hampshire races.

Spoil Sports: New Hampshire A Spot For Surprises

Of the 71 races in the history of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, only 13 have been won by drivers who were not Chase-eligible. The last to do so was Jamie McMurray at Charlotte Motor Speedway last year. Actually he played spoiler the last two times it has happened (also in 2009 at Talladega).

This year’s Chase field is stout though, and a victory by a non-Chaser seems improbable. After all, the top six and eight of the top-10 finishers at Chicago were Chase drivers.

But, if there were a Chase track (not named Talladega) that could host a surprise victor, it’s New Hampshire. The last four winners of the New Hampshire Chase race all missed the Chase this season: Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle and Bowyer again.

Five of the top-10 finishers in July’s New Hampshire race did not make the Chase, including Joey Logano, who finished fourth.

Plus, there’s the decreasing list of 2010 winners who remain winless in 2011 from which to pull. After Tony Stewart’s win at Chicagoland, that list is now five drivers long: McMurray, Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, David Reutimann and Juan Pablo Montoya.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Etc.

Since he broke his ankle prior to the August Pocono race, Brad Keselowski has scored more points than any other NASCAR Sprint Cup driver, 289 to Jeff Gordon's 262. … Tommy Baldwin Racing will team with the NASCAR Hall of Fame at New Hampshire to celebrate Richie Evans’ upcoming induction into the NHOF. In Sunday’s race, Dave Blaney will pilot the No. 36 Golden Corral/HOF/Richie Evans Chevrolet, donning an orange paint scheme reminiscent of Evans’ distinctive Modified machine.  … The first two of NASCAR's championships will be decided this week. The NASCAR Canadian Tire Series concludes Saturday at Kawartha Speedway, where 2008 champion Scott Steckly carries a 94-point lead over defending champ D.J. Kennington. On Wednesday, the final NASCAR Whelen All-American Series standings will be announced and Ruckersville, Va., late model driver Philip Morris will be officially crowned with his fourth NASCAR national title. … Milestone Watch: Casey Mears will make his 300th start on Sunday; Kyle Busch will make series start No. 250. … In July’s New Hampshire race, Stewart Haas Racing teammates Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart started and finished 1-2, the first time a team had done that since the Daytona 500 in 1989 (Hendrick Motorsports’ teammates Darrell Waltrip and Ken Schrader).  But what SHR did was arguably tougher. Newman won from the pole; Stewart started and finished second. The last time the same team started 1-2 then finished 1-2, with the same drivers in the same order was on April 7, 1957 by DePaolo Engineering at North Wilkesboro. Fireball Roberts won from the pole. Paul Goldsmith started second and finished second.