End Is Near: Karma Colliding As Dale Hits ’Dega

End Is Near: Karma Colliding As Dale Hits ’Dega

Five-time Talladega winner Dale Earnhardt Jr. could bag two birds with the same slingshot on Sunday – giving Hendrick Motorsports its 200th victory and in the process snap a 138-race winless streak dating to June 2008.

HMS has won 11 times at Talladega, one fewer victory than Richard Childress Racing. RCR has won three of the last four Talladega races.

Earnhardt, second in the standings five points behind Greg Biffle, last led the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points standings after his fifth and last win at Talladega in October 2004. He has four top-10 finishes in the last five spring races at ’Dega and a 13th-place finish in the fifth, two years ago. His Driver Rating of 90.2 ranks second-best at the track.

After a runner-up finish at Richmond last weekend, he’s getting closer – to both the points lead and his 19th career victory.

Jeff Gordon has the most wins – six – by an active competitor at Talladega. His last victory came in 2007, when he swept both spring and fall races. The four-time series champion is the all-time restrictor-plate king, with 12 combined victories at Daytona and Talladega. Defending Aaron’s 499 winner Jimmie Johnson also won in 2006. 

At Talladega, Predictable Is The Unpredictable

Traditional pack racing returned to Daytona International Speedway in February, making this year’s Daytona 500 one of the most memorable in history. 

Look for more of the same in Sunday’s Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway, at 2.66 miles in length the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ longest track.

Talladega equals excitement: Last year’s Aaron’s 499 matched series records for lead changes (88) and closest margin of victory (0.002 seconds).

The only thing predictable about Talladega is the racing is unpredictable. Fact: Every Talladega race finishing under the green flag since introduction of electronic scoring in 1993 has recorded an MOV of under a half second.

Four different drivers led the final four laps of last year’s Aaron’s 499 with Jimmie Johnson shoved to the checkered flag by Clint Bowyer. Unsatisfied with second, Bowyer returned to Alabama in the fall and edged then Richard Childress Racing teammate Jeff Burton.

Both races were dominated by two-car tandems. Aerodynamic and other procedural changes largely eliminated the practice in Daytona and likely will restore more traditional superspeedway competition at Talladega, as well.

“I think that the pack-racing that we had at Daytona was amazing.  I thought it was great racing,” said Denny Hamlin, a two-time winner in 2012 who has yet to win at Talladega. “The two-car tandem didn't win the race – that's a good thing.  Really, they got us to where we were running a fast enough speed that handling became somewhat of an issue.”

Daytona 500 winner Matt Kenseth agreed.

“Daytona has the new pavement and a lot of grip just like Talladega,” he said. “It is the same rules package so I think you will see racing like you did during Speedweeks.”

Richard Childress Racing drivers – Bowyer and Kevin Harvick – have won three of the past four races at Talladega. Childress’ 12 victories overall lead all owners with Hendrick one behind. Childress, whose first Talladega start as a driver came in the track’s 1969 inaugural race, will be inducted into the International Motorsports Hall of Fame on Thursday.

“There’s some days where we just finish the last few laps and run probably slower than we need to run. But that’s always been something that Richard [Childress] has pushed on the guys is to make sure that when you start something, you do your best to not have that DNF on the chart,” said Harvick in explanation of the team’s Talladega success. “We’ve definitely torn up our share of stuff at Talladega, as well. But it has been a good place for us. Hopefully we can keep putting ourselves in the right spot and keep that record intact.” 

Charting The Points: A ‘Chase’ Of The Usual Suspects

More and more, the 2012 run up to the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ is looking a lot like the season past.

• Eight of the current top 10 following last weekend’s Richmond race were 2011 Chase qualifiers. A year ago, nine of the top 10 exiting the season’s ninth race made the Chase.
• The only newcomers, with 17 races remaining until the post-season cut-off, is points leader Greg Biffle and Martin Truex Jr., whose Michael Waltrip Racing organization continues to seek its first Chase qualifier.
• Drivers highest ranked for a Wild Card berth – Richmond winner Kyle Busch (11th) and Brad Keselowski (13th) – qualified for last year’s playoffs.

Busch and Keselowski aren’t safe by any stretch of the imagination, but they do have wins. So does 10th-place Ryan Newman, who could qualify via Wild Card if displaced from the top 10.

Busch and Clint Bowyer, who finished a solid seventh in Richmond, trail Newman by 13 and 14 points, respectively. Keselowski, stung by mechanical failures during several recent races, rebounded with a top-10 performance (ninth) in the Capital City 400 and stands 26 points behind Newman.

Every driver ranked 14th through 20th has scored a win at some point of their careers, including four-time champion Jeff Gordon, who easily qualified for last year’s Chase with three victories but stands 17th. Gordon is in better shape than Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kasey Kahne, who nailed his first top-five (fifth) since joining HMS. Kahne, however, is 23rd and lacks top-20 standing to qualify for a Wild Card.

Bowyer’s Room: Clint Hopes To Bring ’Dega Dominance To MWR

Clint Bowyer, owner of two of the last three victories at Talladega Superspeedway while with Richard Childress Racing, now drives for a different team – Michael Waltrip Racing. 

Bowyer’s change of scenery shouldn’t matter. And maybe it’s a good thing.

In the early goings of 2012, the move hasn’t much affected Bowyer. His current points position is 12th. His average points position after race No. 9 during his six years with RCR: 10.3.

Bowyer hopes for parallel Talladega success, too. In the Daytona 500, his first restrictor plate race with MWR, he finished 11th with a Driver Rating of 91.6. Bowyer finished second in last year’s Talladega spring race and won the track’s fall race in 2011. 

He’ll have plenty of help, as teammate – and boss – Michael Waltrip will run the No. 55 in Sunday’s race. MWR has a single top-five finish at Talladega: David Reutimann’s fourth in the fall of 2010. 

Chevrolet Right At Home On High Banks

Talk about manufacturer competitive balance. Every manufacturer has won this season, and two are tied atop the wins list. Chevrolet and Toyota each have three wins, with Toyota taking each of the last two behind Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch’s back-to-back victories at Kansas and Richmond. 

Ford has two wins (Matt Kenseth at Daytona and Greg Biffle at Texas) and Dodge has one (Brad Keselowski at Bristol).

Though Chevrolet hasn’t won since Ryan Newman’s victory at Martinsville four races ago, slot the bowtie brigade in as favorites at Talladega. 

Chevrolet has won each of the last four races at ’Dega, and since 1999, it has won at least one race every year at Talladega except 2008. 

One dark horse candidate for a Chevrolet win: Jamie McMurray. McMurray hopes to repeat his victory of fall 2009 and snap a 48-race winless streak. McMurray has scored three consecutive 14th-place finishes and has moved up to 18th in the points standings – prime Wild Card real estate.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, Etc.

The restrictor plate size for first practice this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway is 29/32 inch, the same size as this year’s Daytona 500. … Top 35 Watch: The No. 10 of Tommy Baldwin Racing sits right on top of the top 35 bubble, 35th place in the owner points, 21 points ahead of the No. 33. David Reutimann will pilot the car this weekend before Danica Patrick returns at Darlington Raceway next week. Those cars in the top 35 of owner points are guaranteed a starting spot each subsequent race. … Milestone Marker: Kyle Busch is one win away from tying David Pearson for second on the all-time NASCAR national series wins list. With his victory at Richmond last weekend, Busch now has 105 wins. … Ryan Newman has yet to win a Coors Light Pole in his Talladega career, and one this weekend would qualify as historic. Newman’s next pole is No. 50 in his NASCAR Sprint Cup career, which would put him alone in ninth on the all-time list. His best Talladega start was third in 2005. … Greg Biffle needs just 16 laps led to reach 5,000 laps led in his NSCS career. … Take note, three restrictor plate gurus will attempt to make spot starts this weekend: Bill Elliott (two plate wins), Michael Waltrip (four) and Trevor Bayne (one). … Bowyer will be running a special Alabama National Champions paint scheme this weekend.