New Hampshire’s First Race Wrote Chase’s Script
How accurately did July’s LENOX Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway preview this year’s Chase field?Within one position of perfection.
The first nine finishers, led by race-winner Kasey Kahne, all qualified for the Chase as did those 11th through 13th. Finishing behind Kahne in the top five were Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski.
Ryan Newman, New Hampshire’s 2010 July winner and a potential Chase Wild Card down to the checkered flag earlier this month in Richmond, was the only odd man out, finishing 10th.
It’s certainly an intriguing set-up for Sunday’s return engagement at the 1.058-mile track and the second round of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™.
July’s victory, his second of the year after a lackluster start in the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, effectively punched Kahne’s Chase ticket. With a third-place finish a week ago in Chicago, Kahne is making the most of his first post-season trip since 2009.
He’s fifth in the standings, one of a trio of competitors 15 points behind Chase leader Keselowski. Top seed Hamlin is fourth; Bowyer ranks sixth.
Kahne is one of eight Chase qualifiers with New Hampshire victories. Tony Stewart, last year’s Sylvania 300 winner, has won three times as have Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Bowyer won twice, with Hamlin, Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick one-race winners at NHMS.
The New Hampshire Chase race winner has gone on to claim the championship twice: Stewart a year ago and Kurt Busch in 2004. The Sylvania 300 was the post-season’s opener from 2004 to 2010.
Statistically, here are four drivers to watch in New Hampshire:
• Stewart has the top Driver Rating (112.0) and 14 top fives in 27 starts.
• Gordon leads in top fives (15) and top 10s (20) with a 109.3 Driver Rating.
• Johnson is third in Driver Rating (105.1) and second in average finish (9.9).
• Hamlin ranks fourth in Driver Rating (101.4) and boasts a best average finish of 8.5.
Current Chase competitors have won four of the past five races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: Kahne, Stewart, Bowyer (fall 2010) and Johnson (summer 2010).
One Race Elevates Keselowski From Contender To Favorite
Brad Keselowski may be the least-experienced driver in this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™. And last Sunday’s GEICO 400, which Keselowski won, was only the first of 10 rounds of the post season.
But make no mistake. How he won – and whom he defeated, five-time champion Jimmie Johnson – elevated the 28-year-old Michigan native from title contender to a favorite’s role.
The race had all the earmarks of a classic Johnson victory: A start from the Coors Light Pole, most laps led (172 of 267) and a seemingly perfect final pit stop.
Keselowski and crew chief Paul Wolfe, however, did Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus one better. The No. 2 Penske Racing Dodge’s last service was even quicker, which set up a pass of Johnson’s No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet on Keselowski’s out lap.
He then pulled away to win by more than three seconds.
Keselowski’s lead isn’t much, three points over Johnson and eight better than three-time and defending champion Tony Stewart. And the winner of the season’s first race has gone on to become champion just twice – Stewart a year ago and Kurt Busch in 2004. Yet it shouldn’t be a complete surprise.
Keselowski’s three regular season victories matched the output of Johnson and Stewart. And he had momentum going into the Chase, scoring the most points of any competitor during previous 10 races.
He also finished a solid fifth in the overall standings a year ago after having qualified for his first Chase as a Wild Card. Keselowski now has won eight times in 116 NASCAR Sprint Cup starts.
Johnson isn’t on top – yet. He’s won the second race of the Chase three times, in 2005 and 2009-10. The last two years were championship seasons.
And Stewart? Lurking following a sixth-place Chicagoland finish after starting 29th.
No Quit For Gordon Despite Chicagoland Hiccup
Don’t count out Jeff Gordon quite yet.Gordon, who squeezed into the Chase by the thinnest of margins as the No. 2 Wild Card, had nowhere to go but up in Chicago. A throttle malfunction and an excursion into the outside SAFER barrier ended a likely top-five finish well short of the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet team’s goal.
The four-time champion, still 12th of 12 in Chase standings, now looks at a 47-point deficit with just nine races to go.
Time to throw in the towel? The math, according to Gordon, says no.
Two months ago, Gordon and company went to New Hampshire Motor Speedway mired in the season’s biggest hole – 191 points out of the point lead. Six top-10 finishes in the next eight races netted 54 points on the No. 1 position. It can be done, although Gordon will need help from his rivals.
"Recently, we have led laps, run well and been in position to win," said Gordon. "We just need to put ourselves in that position again – and capitalize on it."
Gordon wasn’t the only driver to stumble out of the gate. No. 1 seed Denny Hamlin and regular season points leader Greg Biffle each dropped three positions – Hamlin to fourth, Biffle to eighth. Hamlin, like Gordon, was a solid top-10 performance throughout the GEICO 400 but ran out of fuel on the final lap.
Hamlin’s three-point pre-Chase lead is now a 15-point deficit while Biffle is 19 back.
Daytona 500 winner and 2003 Sprint Cup champion Matt Kenseth also took a points hit in the Chase opener. Kenseth, also a standings leader during the regular season, is 26 points out in 11th after a broken shock relegated his No. 17 Roush Fenway Racing Ford to a Chicagoland finish of 18th.
To help the above drivers breathe a little easier, a poor Chase opener historically doesn’t always spell doom. Jimmie Johnson twice finished outside the top 20 and went on to win the title. In 2006, he finished 39th in the first Chase race; in 2010, he finished 25th.
It’s Not How You Start
Below is each Chase champion’s points position after the first Chase race:Year Champion Pnt Pos.
2004 Kurt Busch 2
2005 Tony Stewart 1
2006 Jimmie Johnson 9
2007 Jimmie Johnson 1
2008 Jimmie Johnson 2
2009 Jimmie Johnson 2
2010 Jimmie Johnson 7
2011 Tony Stewart 2
Spoil Sport: Newman Hopes To Play Upset Role
A year has passed since Ryan Newman turned the fastest lap during a Coors Light Pole session. That’s 35 races that have come and gone since the Rocket Man won a pole – the third-longest pole drought of Newman’s career. His longest stretch between poles came across the 2010 and 2011 seasons, when he went 41 races without one. Coincidentally, that drought ended with a pole in New Hampshire’s first race of 2011.Newman’s last pole came at New Hampshire Motor Speedway during last year’s Chase (he finished 25th that race). If he can duplicate that qualifying effort, Newman will become the ninth driver in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series history with 50 career Coors Light Poles.
And if he can win the race, he’ll join a short list of "Chase spoilers" – non-Chase drivers who win a Chase race. Not surprisingly, a "spoil" is rare.
Last year, only two spoilers nabbed victory from championship contenders – Clint Bowyer at Talladega and Kasey Kahne at Phoenix. Both drivers qualified for this year’s Chase.
In all, only 15 of the previous 81 Chase races have been won by a driver not Chase-eligible.
Arguably, Newman ranks as the top candidate to play spoiler this weekend. He won the July New Hampshire race last season, and has finished in the top 10 in five of the last six races – including 10th in the series’ first NHMS stop this season.
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