7 Reasons Jimmie Johnson Could Win No. 7

7 Reasons Jimmie Johnson Could Win No. 7

1)     Wins Are More Important Than Ever: Since his full-time entry into the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in 2002, no one wins like Jimmie Johnson. Since 2002, Johnson has piled up 66 wins – 30 more than second-place during that span (Tony Stewart, 36). To put that into perspective, 30 wins would put a driver in 23rd on the all-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series wins list. In the 65-year history of the series, the premium on winning has never been this high. And that’s good news for Johnson.

2) He’ll make the Chase Grid: As they say, you gotta be in it to win it. And Johnson likely will be in it. In every single regular season since the inception of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, Johnson has scored at least one win. And in eight of the 10, he’s scored three or more. So, even if he somehow has a bad points season – also unlikely – he’ll probably win any tie-breakers because of multiple wins.

3) Challenger Round, No Problem: Johnson should own the Challenger Round, which encompasses races Nos. 27-29. Though Johnson has yet to win a race at Chicagoland (the first race of this round), his eight wins at Dover (the third race of this round) are more than any driver in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series history. In addition, Johnson has won a race in what would’ve been the Challenger Round in five of the previous 10 Chases. Need further proof? Even if he doesn’t win, he’ll likely advance on points. He has averaged a top 10 finish in race Nos. 27-29 in each of the last seven Chases.

4) Contender Round, Also Not A Problem: Again, the tracks in the Contender Round – race Nos. 30-32 – historically pose little problems for the six-time champion. He has averaged a finish inside the top 8 during races 30-32 in six of the 10 previous Chases (eight drivers advance to the next round). But it likely won’t matter – Johnson has won either race No. 30, 31 or 32 in seven of the 10 Chases.

5) Eliminator Round Even Less Of A Problem Than The Challenger Or Contender Round: The Eliminator Round (race No. 33-35) features Martinsville (Johnson has eight wins, tied for third all time), Texas (three wins, tied for most all time) and Phoenix (four wins, tied for most all time). In 2007, he won all three of these races as part of a four-race win streak.

6) He’s Not So Bad At Homestead: Though he has yet to win at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he’s solid – even when he hasn’t had to be. Often times, he’s needed a so-so finish just to clinch a title. Still, he has the eighth-best average finish among active drivers, and that includes three finishes outside the top 30. When he’s been in the championship hunt, he’s exceled – most notably his runner-up finish in 2010 to leapfrog Denny Hamlin for his fifth consecutive championship.

7) His Chase Numbers Are Otherworldly: NASCAR now has a decade’s worth of Chase statistics, all of which are utterly dominated by Johnson. He leads all drivers in wins (24), average start (9.4), average finish (8.8), top fives (56), top 10s (74), average running position (9.4) and driver rating (111.2).

2/17/2014