Cool-Down Lap
Sunday’s Pocono race was a harbinger of the Chase
June 9, 2014
By Reid Spencer
NASCAR Wire Service
Just in case you didn’t realize it, Sunday’s Pocono 400 was a preview of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
That
doesn’t mean, necessarily, that the top two finishers at Pocono Raceway,
Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski, will battle for the
championship.
But the
race did underscore the clear superiority of Hendrick Motorsports (and
affiliated teams) and Team Penske, the two organizations that are light
years ahead of the competition
in a sport where light years are measured in hundredths of a second.
The
Pocono 400 also suggested that the championship battle could well come
down to a battle between Hendrick engines on the one hand and Roush
Yates power plants on the other.
Fourteen races into the season, those two engine builders have
demonstrated a clear horsepower edge.
Cars
with Hendrick Chevrolet power under the hood have won eight of the first
14 races—Kevin Harvick (2), Jimmie Johnson (2), Dale Earnhardt J. (2)
and Jeff Gordon and Kurt
Busch one each.
Cars equipped with Roush Yates Ford power have won four—Joey Logano (2) and Brad Keselowski and Carl Edwards one each.
Penske
teammates Keselowski and Logano have combined for three poles and 12
front-row starts in 14 races, indisputable proof that their cars are
fast.
Naysayers
will point out that there are 12 weeks left in the Sprint Cup regular
season and 10 more races in the Chase after that, leaving teams that are
behind in refining
their performance under NASCAR’s new rules package plenty of time to
catch up.
After
all, there are thousands of miles yet to be covered during testing,
countless hours of simulations to be run and dozens of new ideas to try.
Unfortunately
for the teams that are behind, the new dynamic in Sprint Cup
racing—specifically, the way drivers now qualify for the Chase—suggests
that teams that have an edge
now are more likely than in years past to maintain that advantage
throughout the season.
Why?
Because there’s no longer any incentive whatsoever to stick with a pat
hand and try to rack up points before the Chase starts.
With
each passing week, the likelihood increases that all drivers with at
least one victory will qualify for the Chase. Accordingly, teams with a
win in the bank can be much
more aggressive with their setups and engine packages as they explore
the performance limits of the new rules.
That
means the excellent results Hendrick and Penske are enjoying are likely
to get better, even as other are chasing them and likewise improving.
The
chances of a team waking up during the Chase and winning the
championship aren’t nearly as great as they were back in 2011, when Tony
Stewart won five of the last 10 races
after going winless in the first 26.
Because
there’s no points racing to inhibit continued development, the teams
that have a head start now are likely to be the teams fighting for the
championship at the end
of the year.
That’s
why the 1-2 finish for Earnhardt and Keselowski can serve as an omen for
the Chase. At this point, there’s simply no reason for either Hendrick
Motorsports or Team Penske
to stop experimenting and let other organizations achieve parity.
The
Pocono 400 also reminded us of something else. No matter how strong a
team may be, and no matter how dominant a car might seem, a small random
event—a hot dog wrapper partially
obstructing the grille opening, for instance—can still spoil the
best-laid plans, even to the point of determining who the next Sprint
Cup champion might be.
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