Jimmie Johnson’s goose is cooked—and other Chase myths

Jimmie Johnson’s goose is cooked—and other Chase myths

 

By Reid Spencer
Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service

 

(October 3, 2011)

 

DOVER, Del.—Jimmie Johnson had rabbit ears.

 

He heard the talk. After finishes of 10th at Chicagoland and 18th and New Hampshire, Johnson was 10th in the Sprint Cup standings, 29 points behind Chase leader Tony Stewart.

 

A testy radio exchange between Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus fed the idea that the No. 48 team just wasn’t the same outfit that had won five straight championships. Some even suggested that, based on his performances in the first two races, the defending champ wouldn’t be defending this year.

 

In succession, during Friday’s media availability at Dover International Speedway, other drivers were asked whether Johnson was out of the running.

 

What confederacy of dunces came up with that idea? I wouldn’t bet against Jimmie Johnson if he were the bottom seed in a sack race. The mythology that the No. 48 can be counted out after two events is just that—mythology.

 

Look at the history. In 2006, Johnson crashed in the opening Chase race at Loudon and finished 39th. In the first four Chase races, his best finish was 13th at Dover, and after wrecking at Talladega and finishing 24th in the fourth Chase race, Johnson was eighth in the Chase standings, 156 points behind leader Jeff Burton.

 

As we all know, Johnson rallied with four runner-up finishes and a win in the next five races en route to the first of his five straight titles.

 

Through Sunday’s AAA 400 at Dover, where he finished second, Johnson has run 73 Chase races. He has finished in the top five in 41 of those races. Thirty-one of those top fives have been either wins (19) or second-place runs (12).

 

Johnson makes his living in the Chase. Until he’s eliminated from contention mathematically, he’s a threat. That’s no myth.

 

 

 

Closest Chase ever?

 

This year’s Chase promises to be the most competitive ever. Through three races, it already is. Despite undistinguished runs at Chicagoland and Dover, Jeff Gordon, in ninth place, is 19 points behind leaders Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards.

 

No other Chase has ever been that tight between so many drivers after three races. Last year, the ninth place driver was 101 points out of the lead, the closest a ninth-place driver had been to that point. Translating this year’s simplified points system into last year’s, Gordon would be 68 points behind.

 

To suggest, however, that the new points system has anything to do with the closeness of the Chase is another myth. The new points system is the functional equivalent of the old points system, with the exception of the top 11 spots. Top 10s and top fives were worth more last year in relative terms, but not enough to skew the graph significantly.

 

In fact, the new points system has created a laundry list of myths. When you hear reporters or drivers asserting that bad finishes are more disastrous under the new system, or that wins are more valuable this year, or that it’s more difficult to make up ground today because last place points under the new system are a smaller percentage than last-place points under the old system, pay no attention.

 

Those are specious arguments to perpetuate the myth that the new points system has aspects that are significantly different from the old one. It’s simply not true.

 

 

 

Is Earnhardt toast?

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished 24th at Dover, KO’d by a stray sway bar and a loose wheel. He’s 10th in points, 34 behind Harvick and Edwards. Yes, he has a mountain to climb to get back into contention, but, no, he’s not out of the game, any more than Johnson was last week.

 

Granted, most of the drivers ahead of him will have to have serious trouble at least once over the next seven weeks, but that’s not out of the question, either.

 

Look ahead to Oct. 23. Talladega is trouble with a capital “T.” In 2008, the Talladega race radically altered the complexion of the Chase, when half the title contenders wrecked and Johnson dodged the melee.

 

Earnhardt has a knack for superspeedway racing, and it’s not too far-fetched to think he could benefit from turmoil at Talladega.