Talk throughout this season, and especially this Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, has focused on Jimmie Johnson and his quest for yet another NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship. He has five, all in a row, and suffice it to say, the competition is fed up. They’re also catching up, with a bevy of names in contention to nab Johnson’s crown. With that in mind, the NASCAR IMC department has an argument with itself, in a special Point/Counterpoint: Jimmie Johnson Edition.
Point: He’s Done … Six Reasons Why Six Won’t Happen
The four other champions are clicking: Aside from Jimmie Johnson, four other past NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champions are vying for another title: Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon. Stewart won the first two Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup races (Chicagoland and New Hampshire); Busch won the third (Dover). Kenseth is one of four drivers with a Driver Rating over 100 (102.0) in the first three races. Gordon has 23 wins at the next seven tracks, more than any other driver. All four are within 20 points of the leader Kevin Harvick.
Carl Edwards is on fire: Only one driver has scored a top-10 finish in each Chase race thus far: Edwards. He has also scored more points in the Chase thus far than any other driver. And his immediate future shines particularly bright. Edwards considers Kansas Speedway his home track, and puts this race atop his “most coveted” list. Click here for video of Edwards talking about racing close to home.
Despite Dover stumble, Keselowski on a mission: Kansas Speedway was Brad Keselowski’s coming out party, winning there in June during the series’ first trip to the 1.5-mile track (for more on Keselowski and Kansas, see page two). Keselowski hiccupped at Dover, finishing 20th – his first finish outside the top 15 since July. Though he slumped to sixth in the standings, Keselowski still has eight top 10s in the last 10 races. He also has victories at two of the next seven tracks: Kansas and Talladega.
Points leader Kevin Harvick knows this pressure: One reason Johnson wins championships: He knows how to handle playoff pressure. After last year’s championship flirtation, so too does Kevin Harvick. Though Harvick, the current points leader, came up short last season, it wasn’t for lack of trying. Only once did the two-time NASCAR Nationwide Series champion finish outside the top 10 during last year’s Chase, and his average finish over the last five races was a pressure-shirking 4.0.
Top seed Kyle Busch will meet expectations: In past years, New Hampshire and Dover have thwarted Kyle Busch’s attempts at a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship. At Chase Media Day, he had mentioned how he wanted to get through those two personal landmines, and go from there. He has. Though eighth in the points, his finishes at New Hampshire and Dover were a respectable 11th and sixth. Kansas, though, is another object of frustration for Busch. He has only one top 10 in eight starts.
Statistically, this is the most competitive year ever: Johnson has one victory through the first 29 races, the fewest in his career. His previous low was three wins through 29 events. Last year, he had six at this point. The 16 different winners this season are the most through 29 races since 2007. Additionally, there have been an average of 13 different leaders and 27 lead changes per race, most through 29 races in series history. Simply put, stringing wins together – like the time he won four straight in 2007 – just doesn’t seem likely.
Counterpoint: Are You Nuts? Johnson’s Still The Man
Count Jimmie Johnson out. He dares you.
Most folks likely first dismissed him in 2006. Johnson opened the Chase with a 39th-place finish in 2006, then followed it up with “just OK” runs of 13th and 14th. Of course, he won the title that year – thanks to a win and three runner-up finishes in the second half of that year’s Chase.
Last year, the “Jimmie Johnson’s Done” drumbeat sounded after a 25th-place finish to start the Chase. He hushed those critics in a jiff, winning at Dover in Chase race No. 2.
This familiar chorus sounds again. After dropping to 10th in the points after the second Chase race at New Hampshire – the lowest he has ever been in Chase history – Johnson quickly rung up a runner-up finish at Dover to catapult to fifth in the points standings, 13 points behind leader Kevin Harvick.
Though Johnson’s vulnerability feels like it’s at an all-time high, statistically that’s wrong. Over the last 10 races, he has the second-best Driver Rating (97.4), the second-most laps led (360) and is tied for second in top fives (five) and top 10s (seven). At Kansas, he’s a whiz. He won in 2008, and has finished outside the top 10 only twice.
Keselowski Returns To The Scene Of Kansas Transformation
For Brad Keselowski, Kansas Speedway is where it all began, where the Penske Racing competitor began being viewed as a solid NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competitor.
Yes, Keselowski won June’s race on fuel mileage, which some viewed as lucky happenstance.
But the Michigan driver was just getting warmed up.
For Keselowski, 2011 has been a tale of two seasons – one of frustration, and one with the possibility of actually winning the NASCAR Sprint Cup title.
• In the 12 races in 2011 prior to Kansas, Keselowski posted just a single top-10 finish, third at Darlington.
• He led just four races and finished outside the top 20 seven times.
• Beginning with his Kansas victory Keselowski has led 11 of the past 17 races.
• During that span, he’s scored three victories, been in the top five seven times and logged 11 top-10 finishes.
• Most importantly, he went from 25th in the standings to a spot in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Keselowski rose to third two weeks ago before settling in at his current sixth, 14 points behind leader Kevin Harvick.
The question is whether lightning can strike twice, although Keselowski isn’t feeling a lot of pressure.
“I’m having fun, not because I’m in the Chase; I’m having fun because of fast race cars and a team that is putting it all together,” he said. “We all believe in each other. I just really like the group of people that I’m around.”
Non-Chase Qualifiers Have Made Mischief In Kansas
There are spoilers and there are spoilers. Just 13 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup races have been won by drivers not qualified for the post-season competition, and three have occurred at Kansas Speedway.
It was more surprising that Tony Stewart didn’t qualify for the Chase than that he won the 2006 Hollywood Casino 400. Stewart, after all, won the previous year’s NASCAR Sprint Cup championship. He’s an “in” this year, winning the Chase’s first two races at Chicago and in New Hampshire.
This year’s “outs” that could repeat or imprint their spoiler roles include:
• Greg Biffle, defending winner of the 1.5-mile track’s fall race. In 2007, Biffle failed to make the cut for the second consecutive year after finishing as the runner-up to Stewart two years earlier. Biffle finished 10th at Kansas Speedway in June.
• Joe Nemechek, a veteran of more than 250 races and three victories, was the Kansas winner in 2004. Unlike Biffle or Stewart, Nemechek has yet to qualify for the Chase.
• Mark Martin wasn’t a spoiler when he won the 2005 Hollywood Casino 400. He could become one this week.
• Clint Bowyer, who was raised in nearby Emporia, Kan., hopes to improve on his finish of second here in 2007. He won a NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race at Kansas Speedway in June.
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Etc.
Milestones this week: David Ragan will make his 175th series start, Mike Bliss will attempt to make his 125th series start, Ryan Newman will attempt to post his 150th top-10 finish and 50th Coors Light Pole and Juan Pablo Montoya will attempt to post his 50th top 10 finish. … Sixteen drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as Kansas, including Jim Roper, who won the very first NASCAR Sprint Cup race – Charlotte in 1949. … NASCAR Camping World Truck Series standings leader Austin Dillon will make his NASCAR Sprint Cup debut this weekend at Kansas driving for Mike Curb in the No. 98. Dillon has made two NCWTS starts at Kansas posting one pole and one top 10. … For the first time, NASCAR Sprint Cup Series haulers will participate in a hauler parade in the Village West area of Kansas City, Kan. on Thursday, Oct. 6, before heading to Kansas Speedway. The hauler parade kicks off the 5th annual Parade of Heroes, which features vintage military vehicles, local marching bands and fire and police departments. Parade of Heroes is presented each year by the Village West Rotary Club and honors men and women in uniform – soldiers, police, fire and our veterans. … Several local Kansas City heroes will be in attendance this weekend at Kansas Speedway including retired Kansas City Chief Ed Budde, retired Kansas City Royal Greg Pryor and retired New York Islander Ken Morrow, along with Major General Lee Tafanelli.
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