Cool-Down Lap
Johnson sees points lead shrink with late-race accident
June 17, 2013
By Reid Spencer
NASCAR Wire Service
When
Jimmie Johnson hit the wall in the closing laps of Sunday's Quicken
Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway, he also took
a serious hit in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series standings.
The five-time champion blew a tire, smacked the wall, finished 28th and lost roughly 40 percent of the advantage he held
entering the race, as his lead over second-place Carl Edwards (eighth Sunday) dwindled to 31 points.
So
what, you might say. Johnson is still comfortably in the lead and he's
in no danger of missing the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup
for the first time in his career. But there's another reason why
Johnson was loath to see the margin shrink.
What
it means: Johnson's wife Chani is expecting the couple's second child,
and the due date is in September. The possibility exists
that Johnson may need to miss a race to witness the birth of his child.
Before
Michigan, Johnson was more than one full race ahead of Edwards. Now
he's not. Being the regular-season champion in the Cup series
isn't that big a deal, because it pays no points, and the Chase is
seeded by number of victories in the first 26 races.
Nevertheless,
leading the points before the Chase is set is a benchmark of the
quality of one's program, and Johnson doesn't want to
see any erosion in the standings. Chances are, he'll come out loaded
for bear at Sonoma.
CHASE CHANCES
On
a miserable day for Hendrick Motorsports, Kasey Kahne also suffered a
blown right front tire and smacked the wall. Dale Earnhardt
Jr. blew an engine while leading. Jeff Gordon was the innocent victim
of an early spin by Bobby Labonte.
Doubtless
all three drivers will shake off their bad luck and regroup, but, where
the Chase is concerned, the mishaps have them all
in positions that range from uncomfortable to downright precarious.
What it means: Kahne lost four positions in the standings and stands 12th,
no longer in a Chase-eligible position. Yes, Kahne
currently leads the wild-card standings and in fact is the only driver
in a wild-card eligible position (11-20 in the standings) with a
victory.
But
Kahne has to worry about two things: 1) drivers with victories dropping
out of the top 10, and 2) drivers with no wins getting one
or two and passing him in the standings.
Earnhardt
lost three spots to seventh in points. Though he's still in the top 10,
Earnhardt has no wins, and he's only 32 points ahead
of Paul Menard in 11th place. With no wild-card insurance right now, Earnhardt could see his Chase hopes dashed by another DNF or two.
Gordon is in real trouble. He dropped five spots to 16th in points, and he has no victories to help him out in the quest
for a potential wild card. Yes, Gordon is only 19 points out of 10th place, but the driver in 10th is upwardly mobile Tony Stewart, whose star is on the rise while Gordon's clearly is not.
Worse
yet, with all the ill fortune that's befallen him this year, Gordon is
starting to sound like a driver who expects the worst to
happen. When you have that mind-set, it usually does.
Last year, Hendrick Motorsports got all four of its cars into the Chase by the slimmest of margins. This year, I don't see it.
TIPPING POINT
Denny Hamlin may have a choice to make, sooner rather than later.
Thanks to a shock absorber issue at Michigan, the driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota finished 30th and took another
blow to his fading hopes of making the Chase after missing four races with a back injury.
Now 26th in the standings, Hamlin is 85 points -- nearly two full races -- behind Kurt Busch in 20th,
the position
Hamlin must reach, at a minimum, to be eligible for a wild card. At
this point, Hamlin also would need to win at least one, probably two of
the final 11 races.
What
it means: A last-lap accident at Fontana, Calif., in late March caused
the compression fracture of Hamlin's first lumbar vertebra
that kept him out of the car. It also exacerbated a chronic problem
Hamlin has with bulging discs, and those are more painful than the
fracture was.
Hamlin
is considering surgery to correct the problem and said in April that
he'll consider an operation during the season if it becomes
obvious that he's not going to make the Chase.
Though
Hamlin still has a slim hope, the time for that choice is fast
approaching. One or two more bad races, and Hamlin can resign
himself to missing the playoff for the first time in his career.
The opinions expressed are solely those of the author.
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