Cool-Down Lap
Ten drivers have won races, prompting question of 'Who's Next?'
June 2, 2014
By Reid Spencer
NASCAR Wire Service
There
are 13 places left in NASCAR's high-stakes game of musical chairs, and
each week, one of those chairs will be removed from the game.
We’re
at the halfway point of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series "regular" season.
The first 13 races have produced 10 different winners and three two-time
winners: Kevin Harvick,
Joey Logano and Jimmie Johnson.
But
there are five drivers who qualified for last year’s Chase for the
NASCAR Sprint Cup who haven’t done what it takes to make the 2014
edition of NASCAR’s playoffs, meaning
there are five Chase drivers from last year who haven’t yet won a race
this season.
The gang of five on the outside includes Matt Kenseth, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman.
So let’s look at their chances over the next 13 races.
Theoretically,
13 more different drivers could visit Victory Lane before the Chase
field is set at Richmond in September, but we all know that’s not going
to happen. In the
first place, the chances of shutting out the 10 drivers who already
have won over the second half of the regular season are miniscule.
So even
if there are 13 chairs left in theory, the number realistically is
probably closer to five or six, given that some of the drivers who have
already won are likely to
continue winning.
So where does that leave our five outsiders? Here’s an analysis of their prospects:
Matt
Kenseth: Last season’s most prolific winner (seven races) hasn’t quite
had the speed necessary to win a race. Kenseth has had enough muscle to
post five top fives, including
third-place results in the last two races, but the No. 20 Joe Gibbs
Racing Toyota has lacked the necessary edge to grab the top spot. If he
continues to run up front, however, the odds say things will go
Kenseth’s way sooner or later. He’s too good and too
consistent not to win one of the first 26. If Kenseth can retain his
lead in the series standings, he can make the Chase on points, too, even
if he doesn’t win a race. Best chances for victory: Kentucky, Bristol
and Atlanta.
Clint
Bowyer: The driver of the No. 15 Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota has
suffered through a star-crossed season. Despite pinching Kyle Busch’s
Camry into the wall at Dover
on Sunday, Bowyer salvaged a fourth-place finish, but that was only his
second top five of the season. When Bowyer has a competitive car,
something invariably goes wrong, either mechanically or in the pits. The
No. 15 team needs to fins a level of consistency
that will put Bowyer in position to win a race. So far, that hasn’t
happened. Best chances for victory: Sonoma, New Hampshire and Richmond.
Greg
Biffle: What do you do when you don’t have speed at the tracks that
typically are your bread-and-butter? That’s the conundrum confronting
the entire Roush Fenway organization
and Biffle in particular. Like Bowyer, the driver of the No. 16 Ford
has but two top fives this year, and his best result (second) came in
the crapshoot at Talladega. RFR is taking drastic measures to right the
ship, recently releasing long-time lead engineer
Chip Bolin. Whether Biffle will have a strong enough car to make the
Chase, though, remains a serious question. Best chances for victory:
Michigan (twice) and Daytona.
Kasey
Kahne: Is the curse of the Hendrick fourth car thwarting Kahne’s efforts
to win a race? Or is the loss of the No. 5 Chevrolet lead engineer
Keith Rodden (now crew chief
for Jamie McMurray at Chip Ganassi Racing) still having a lingering
effect? Kahne looked competitive early at Dover, then disappeared.
Unfortunately, that’s been the pattern of the No. 5 team in too many
races this year. Kahne was strong at Kansas, where he
showed excellent speed, but that third-place finish is his only top
five so far this year. Still, with the three other Hendrick cars winning
in the first 13 races, you have to think Kahne is a candidate in the
second 13… unless it’s the curse. Best chances
for victory: Pocono (twice), Kentucky and Atlanta.
Ryan
Newman: Bluntly, none of the Richard Childress Racing drivers has been a
threat to win a race so far this year. In his first year with the
organization, Newman has four
top 10s and no top fives, with his best results (a pair of sevenths)
coming in the second and third races of the season, at Phoenix and Las
Vegas. It’s stating the obvious, but to win a race, you have to be in
position to win a race at the end of the race,
and Newman hasn’t been there. But RCR, which has a huge number of new
moving parts on the personnel side this year, has 13 races to find
answers. Best chances for victory: Sonoma, New Hampshire, Indianapolis
and Richmond.
Let’s
not forget that these five 2013 Chase drivers aren’t the only ones with
realistic chances to win a race. Tony Stewart, sidelined with a broken
leg suffered last August,
finds invariably a way to win when it’s least expected.
NASCAR
Sprint All-Star Race winner Jamie McMurray has shown excellent speed, as
has rookie teammate Kyle Larson, who has five top 10s and an average
finish of 15th this season.
Danica Patrick had a breakthrough performance at Kansas in May and
should be a threat at Daytona in July.
Paul
Menard is a former winner at the Brickyard and often has had the fastest
of the RCR cars this year. He’s also a formidable plate racer and
underrated on the road courses,
where Richard Petty Motorsports driver Marcos Ambrose will be the
favorite to win.
So if
the next 13 races produce five or six more different winners, one or two
of last year’s Chase drivers are likely to miss the playoff.
Whatever the case, it will be an exciting scramble to watch, particularly when we’re down to the last chair.
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