Clock Ticks Down On Regular Season

NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES

Clock Ticks Down On Regular Season

Only three races remain in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ 26-race regular season, and little has been decided in terms of championship hopefuls.

Here’s what we know right now: Kyle Busch is locked into the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. That’s it.

Busch clinched a spot with his win at Michigan, thereby nabbing at least one of the two Wild Card spots in the 12-driver Chase. It’s likely he’ll soon clinch a top-10 spot, probably this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway. After race No. 26 at Richmond, the top-10 drivers in points set a portion of the 12-driver Chase field. Spots 11 and 12 go to those drivers outside the top 10 with the most wins, provided they are in the top 20. Busch’s Michigan victory was his series-leading fourth of 2011.

But get ready to have some light shed on the championship picture at Bristol, the perfect stage for a Chase-clarifying bout.

Here’s what we might know after Saturday night’s annual fan-favorite IRWIN Tools Night Race: Seven more drivers could join Busch in the Chase.

The “magic number” for a clinching driver after Bristol is 97. Any driver 97 points ahead of 11th place will clinch a spot in the Chase.

These drivers can mathematically clinch this weekend: Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch.

Only Busch and Johnson “control their own destiny” in terms of clinching a top-10 spot; the others need some help in the way of lower-positioned drivers having a low finish. Since Busch would hold the tie-breaker over current 11th-place Clint Bowyer (wins, then seconds, then thirds, etc), his magic number is actually 96. He can clinch a top-10 spot this weekend by finishing at least 29th; or 30th with at least one lap led; or 31st with the most laps led. Johnson, who does not currently hold the tie-breaker, can clinch a top-10 spot by finishing at least 18th; 19th and at least one lap led; or 20th with the most laps led.

And finally, these drivers will lock up at least a Wild Card spot by winning this weekend: Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards.

In other words, this Saturday night’s race is bigger than usual. And it’s usually massive.

Bristol’s annual night race combines history – this is the track’s 50th anniversary – with modern-day spectacle. Add to it some of the intriguing storylines, the drama escalates exponentially. A few angles to watch…

Wild Card Watch: Brad Keselowski (see page 2) and Denny Hamlin remain in spots one and two in the Wild Card hunt. While Keselowski has averaged a second-place finish in the last three races, Hamlin has faltered. Over the last four races – where Hamlin has an average finish of 28.3 – Hamlin has dropped from 10th to 14th in the points. Others with a win inside the top 20: Paul Menard in 18th and David Ragan in 20th. Marcos Ambrose and Regan Smith also have victories, but are outside the top 20.

Sprint Summer Showdown Presented by HTC EVO 3D: Bristol is the final race for drivers to become eligible for the $3 million bonus at Atlanta. For more on the program and the favorites, see story on page 2.

Busch Brothers Battle: A race-within-a-race, the Busch brothers have two juicy sibling rivalry subplots. Kyle’s win at Michigan was his 23rd career victory, which matched older brother Kurt. The two are also tied on the Bristol wins list, with five apiece. Kurt, Kyle and Jeff Gordon own the most wins among active drivers at Bristol.

Bowyer Putting Pressure On Stewart As The ‘Bubble Boys’ Head To Bristol

Bubbles can be pretty to behold but they’re also fragile and subject to burst at any time. That said, being on the bubble isn’t the place a race car driver wants to be.

And that’s where two-time NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Tony Stewart finds himself heading to in Saturday’s Irwin Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway – 10th in the points standings with three races remaining before the field for the 2011 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup is set.

Stewart, who finished ninth last weekend at Michigan International Speedway, expressed both frustration at a so-far winless season and wondered whether he even belongs among the elite field which will vie for this season’s championship.

If history is any indication, Stewart’s bubble won’t burst at Bristol, despite pressure from Clint Bowyer. Bowyer, in 11th, trails Stewart by 24 points.

• Stewart has a victory at Bristol, albeit 10 years ago. His average finish at the 0.533-mile concrete oval is 13.5 – two positions better than Bowyer.

• Stewart may be without a victory for the first time in his 14-year NASCAR Sprint Cup career but the performance of the No. 14 Chevrolet has been solid. He’s finished among the top 15 in six of the past seven races with three top 10s in the most recent top five.

• Bowyer, on the other hand, may be running out of time to erase a half-race deficit. He beat Stewart by a position in Michigan – a net gain of only a point. His best finishes at Bristol are a pair of thirds.

Last Year’s Winners Running Out Of ‘Wild Card’ Opportunity

Jamie McMurray won three races including the Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400 but couldn’t quite reach a Chase position in 2010, a season without the Wild Card rule.

But McMurray – and several others – haven’t been able to replicate last season’s success. They remain without a victory with just three more chances to in effect fill an inside straight and gain admission to the Chase.

• McMurray and Earnhardt Ganassi Racing teammate Juan Pablo Montoya are really on the outside looking in: not only without a win but also outside the top 20 in the points standings. Montoya is 22nd, McMurray 27th and needing at least two victories and help from drivers ranked ahead of them. David Reutimann, last year’s Chicagoland winner, is 26th and facing the same situation.

• Clint Bowyer won twice a year ago, ironically both times during the Chase. In 11th and possibly too far outside the top 10, he conceivably could qualify with a single win due to Denny Hamlin’s Michigan misfortune, which dropped the one-time winner to 14th in the standings.

• Likewise, Greg Biffle, who bypassed Hamlin to 13th. He’s another 2010 Chase qualifier who has yet to put a “W” on the board this season.

Opposite Ends Of The Spectrum: Penske Racing Teammates Fighting To Make The Chase

The Penske Racing teammates, Brad Keselowski and 2004 series champion Kurt Busch are at the opposite ends of the spectrum as far as momentum goes late in the regular season.

On one hand you have Busch, who has stumbled the last four weeks. During that span, he has dropped from third to eighth in the standings.

But while Busch struggles, teammate Keselowski has taken off, and looks like a legit championship contender. His last three finishes look like this: a win at Pocono, a runner-up finish at Watkins Glen and a third at Michigan. Keselowski has rocketed up from 21st to 12th in points, 52 points outside the top 10.

“We’re continuing to make small gains in several different areas and eventually that relates into raw speed,” said crew chief Paul Wolfe. “As Mr. Penske says, ‘if you stack up enough pennies you’ll eventually get a dollar.’ Now it’s just a matter of having fast race cars, capitalizing on our strategy and getting the finishes.”

Sprint Summer Showdown Nears End; NSCS Etc. 

Bristol’s the final race for drivers to become eligible for the Sprint Summer Showdown Presented by HTC EVO 3D. The winners of Indianapolis (Menard), Pocono (Keselowski), Watkins Glen (Ambrose), Michigan (Busch) and Bristol become eligible for the $3 million prize. If one of the eligibles wins at Atlanta, a million dollars goes to the driver, the driver’s charity and one lucky fan. Best bets for Saturday night’s winner often come from the pre-race Driver Rating rundown. Here it is: Kyle Busch (108.1), Greg Biffle (99.4), Jeff Gordon (97.6), Matt Kenseth (97.5) and Kurt Busch (96.8). … Milestone Watch: Jeff Gordon continues his hunt for 85 wins, which would put him alone in third on the all-time list. … While 80 of the 101 races have been won from top-10 starting positions, Kyle Busch's best starting position on a day he's won is 12th in March…Mark Martin goes for a record 10th Coors Light Pole at the track, snapping a tie with Cale Yarborough. … Monday, August 29 would have been the 90th birthday of NASCAR pioneer, Wendell Scott. On Dec. 1, 1963 in Jacksonville, Fla., Scott became the first African American driver to win a NASCAR premier series race.

NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES TOP 10
Driver	Points	Points Back
1 – Kyle Busch	799	0
2 - Jimmie Johnson	789	-10
3 – Kevin Harvick	760	-39
4 – Carl Edwards	760	-39
5 – Matt Kenseth	759	-40
6 – Jeff Gordon	739	-60
7 – Ryan Newman	725	-74
8 – Kurt Busch	722	-77
9 – Dale Earnhardt Jr	700	-99
10 – Tony Stewart	694	-105