2-cup14 Drivers, Three Spots, One Race

2-cup14 Drivers, Three Spots, One Race

 

In no time at all, the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series regular season will be no more. Its ending will fit perfectly with its beginning, and everything in between.

What started with Trevor Bayne’s stirring victory in the Daytona 500, continued with a record-tying finish at Talladega Superspeedway, a mix of victories from usual suspects (Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, etc.) and newbies (Regan Smith, Paul Menard, David Ragan and Marcos Ambrose) and Jeff Gordon’s historic 85th victory all ends this Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway.

At what many call the perfect track, we could all see the perfect ending.

So much is known about the makeup of the 2011 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Yet, so much can still happen. Nine of the 12 spots are locked up. The top eight drivers – Johnson, Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman – have each clinched at top-10 spot. Brad Keselowski, with three wins, has locked up at least a Wild Card berth.

After Saturday night’s race, the top 10 drivers make up the first part of the 12-driver Chase. Spots 11 and 12 go to those drivers outside the top 10 with the most wins, provided they are in the top 12. The Wild Card tiebreaker is points position.

Only three spots remain. And thanks to the Wild Card factor – which is in its inaugural year – a whopping 14 drivers remain mathematically eligible.

In terms of drivers outside the top 10, positions 11-23 are all mathematically eligible for a Chase nod. In 2005, seven drivers outside the top 10 still had a mathematical chance, the previous high going into Richmond.

A tale of the tape of the 14…

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: A finish of 20th or better at Richmond will lock him into the Chase. Even if Keselowski does knock Earnhardt out of the top 10, he could still earn a Chase berth if there is only one winner from spots 11th to 20th, a mathematical possibility. See page 2 for more on Earnhardt.

Tony Stewart: A finish of 18th or better will lock him into the Chase. Like Earnhardt, even if Keselowski does knock Stewart out of the top 10, Stewart could still earn a Chase berth if there is only one winner from spots 11th to 20th. See page 2 for more on Stewart.

Denny Hamlin: A win, and he’s in. Hamlin doesn’t have to win, though. If he stays ahead of all one-win drivers, and there are no other two-win drivers inside the top 20, he’s in the Chase. Also, if Keselowski does vault into the top 10, Hamlin could still make the Chase if there is a two-win driver from 11th to 20th as long as he’s higher in points than any other one-win driver.

AJ Allmendinger: Allmendinger is where the Wild Card drama starts to ratchet up. Points be damned. A win is the ONLY thing that matters for him, and a number of other drivers. He’ll need a win and movement up the points to nab the tie-breaker. He finished seventh at Richmond in April.

Clint Bowyer: Of the winless drivers, Bowyer might be the best bet. Bowyer won here in 2008, and has an average finish of 9.5. He needs a win, and some help.

Greg Biffle: One of six winless drivers who won in 2010, Biffle’s best Richmond finish was third in 2005. He needs a win, and some help.

Martin Truex Jr.: Two of his last four finishes this season have been in the top five. His best Richmond finish is fifth in 2008. He needs a win, and some help.

Kasey Kahne: Kahne, who needs a win and some help, won at Richmond in 2005, his first career victory.

Joey Logano: Needs a win and help; best Richmond finish: fourth in this race last season.

Mark Martin: Needs a win and help; won at Richmond in 1990.

Paul Menard: Win, and he’s in. Pretty simple. His finishes at Richmond haven’t been so easy. His best: 16th in 2007.

Marcos Ambrose: If he wins, and gets into the top 20, he’s in. Consider him a solid dark horse candidate. Two of his last three Richmond finishes were in the top 10.

Juan Pablo Montoya: Needs a win and help. Best finish was sixth in May of last year.

David Ragan: If he wins, and gets into the top 20, he’s in. Finished fourth in April, and third in 2007.

 

Earnhardt, Stewart, Hamlin Control Chase Destinies 

 

There are a myriad of scenarios for how the final three spots in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup will be awarded this weekend in Richmond.

Four drivers (Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin and Paul Menard), however, control their own destinies. And three of those have exceled at Richmond.

Earnhardt and Stewart, currently in the ninth and 10th positions, can head to the postseason with minimum finishes of 20th and 18th, respectively.

Denny Hamlin, defending winner of Saturday’s Wonderful Pistachios 400, advances with a third Richmond victory.

Hamlin might have the easiest task: wins in two of his past four Richmond starts and a second-place finish when the series visited the 0.75-mile track in May.

The Chesterfield, Va. competitor has a Richmond-leading Driver Rating of 120.4. Hamlin has led nearly 27% (1,188) of laps run – more than 300 more than his closest rival Kyle Busch. Busch won his third Richmond race in May.

Both Earnhardt and Stewart have three Richmond victories although none since Earnhardt captured the track’s 2006 spring race.

Earnhardt, in fact, counts only a single finish (fourth) better than 13th since his victory and ranks 13th in Driver Rating at 84.2. He finished 19th in May.

Stewart ranks sixth in Driver Rating (95.9) and was ninth in Richmond’s most recent event. Stewart’s last Richmond victory came in spring 2002, his first championship season.

 

Three Points Aren’t Many But Could Be The Difference

 

Saturday’s Wonderful Pistachios 400 offers the final opportunity for bonus points that could become significantly more valuable as the 10-race Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup unfolds.

A three-point winner’s bonus doesn’t sound like much until you look at how the season has progressed under the new 2011 points system.

•           The points lead has changed hands 11 times, most recently this week when Jimmie Johnson ousted Kyle Busch from the No. 1 position.

•           Five different drivers – Johnson, Busch, Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick – have taken turns at the top of the points chart. The top two positions were a dead heat as recently as last week, 24 races into the season.

•           The difference between positions one and two has been five or fewer points on 10 occasions.

Busch, who’d like to score a Richmond sweep and pick up those three final bonus points, will be the No. 1 seed no matter what happens in Richmond. He’s the series’ only four-time winner and has 12 bonus points in hand to be added to a base of 2,000 points when the reset begins next week at Chicagoland Speedway. He owns the tiebreaker of next-best-finish, even if Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick or Brad Keselowski match him at four wins with a victory this weekend.

Two drivers, Atlanta winner Gordon and Harvick, have three wins worth nine bonus points. Matt Kenseth’s two victories are worth six points while five-time champion Johnson, Edwards, Kyle Busch and Ryan Newman have single wins and three bonus points apiece.

The Wild Card, as of now, is Brad Keselowski’s. He’s 23 points and one position from cashing his three victories. It could be a case of so near yet so far. If Keselowski doesn’t reach the top 10, the Wild Card wins don’t count.

 

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Etc. 

 

This weekend will be highlighted by special pre-race ceremonies with a “Salute to America” concert featuring patriotic music from the Newport News (VA) Police Pipe and Drums; Mike Corrado, an active duty Marine stationed in Quantico, Virginia, and the U.S. Army 29th Infantry Division Band from Ft. Belvoir followed by Wounded Warriors saying the pledge, Daniel Rodriguez, NYC police officer, singing God Bless America and the U.S. Army Infantry Division Band performing the National Anthem. … Cars in both NASCAR Sprint Cup and NASCAR Nationwide Series will be sporting a special commemorative 9/11 decal; Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, David Gilliland, Jamie McMurray, Danica Patrick, Carl Edwards, Trevor Bayne, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Tony Stewart will be among those running cars in tribute of 9/11. … Kurt Busch will be having an event for media, sponsors and race officials on Monday, Sept. 19, at Wrigley Field to watch the Chicago Cubs take on the Milwaukee Brewers from the Wrigleyville Rooftops. The game starts at 7:05 p.m. … Upcoming Milestones: Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be making his 425th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start this weekend at Richmond International Raceway.