With all that’s on the line, Richmond could be a bloodbath

With all that’s on the line, Richmond could be a bloodbath

By Reid Spencer
Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service

(September 9, 2011)

RICHMOND, Va.—If “Boys, have at it” truly is the modern-day mantra of stock car racing, Saturday night’s Wonderful Pistachios 400 at Richmond International Raceway could be the wildest, most explosive stock car race you’ve ever seen.

 In NASCAR’s eyes—based on what we’ve seen this season—anything goes on the racetrack, as long as it happens between the green flag and the checkers. With berths in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup on the line for 14 drivers, that “anything goes” mentality could turn Richmond into a powder keg.

 Why? Because four drivers—Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski—have targets on their bumpers that are, figuratively speaking, bigger than anything Juan Pablo Montoya has ever displayed on his No. 42 Chevy.

 Keselowski is the only threat to Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s Chase hopes, because Keselowski is the only driver with a realistic chance to knock the sport’s most popular driver out of the top 10 in the Cup standings. To do so, Keselowski would have to gain at least 25 points on Earnhardt at Richmond.

 i’m not saying it should happen. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but there’s one way to assure Earnhardt’s spot in the Chase and remove the Keselowski threat at the same time.

 Wreck him.

 That may seem stark and unsportsmanlike, but you can bet the subject has come up at team meetings, perhaps couched in banter between teammates.

 Keselowski has plenty of reasons to be wary, because Hendrick Motorsports has an armada waiting for him. Perhaps Mark Martin could turn him into the inside wall. And if wrecking someone on purpose seems out of character for Martin, who’s playing out his string at Hendrick, what about Kasey Kahne?

 Kahne, who will drive for Hendrick next year, could ingratiate himself with his new owner and teammate by dealing with the Keselowski problem.

 And if not Kahne, owner Rick Hendrick might just find joy with fellow owner James Finch, one of Hendrick’s long-standing customers in the Cup series.

 “What can I do for you, Don Hendrick,” Finch might have said in a conversation that might have taken place already.

 “I told you that one day I would come to you and ask you to perform a service for me,” Hendrick might have replied. “Your secret weapon, Landon Cassill, has been running well with my engines. I would be in your debt if you would tell Landon to push the button on the No. 2 car. I need to get Junior in the Chase. It’s not personal. It’s strictly business.”

 Counting the four Hendrick cars, the two Chevys from Hendrick affiliate Stewart-Haas, Cassill and Kahne, Keselowski has a lot to worry about Saturday. In all seriousness, he probably won’t get wrecked intentionally, but you can bet those drivers will try to protect Earnhardt by racing BK as hard as they can.

 The good news is that Keselowski already has clinched a Chase spot.

 That’s not true of Earnhardt, Stewart and Hamlin. And all three of those drivers will be watching their mirrors, too.

 If Earnhardt or Stewart has trouble -- such as a subtle nudge into the wall by a Richard Childress Racing driver -- and falls out of the top 10, RCR driver Paul Menard has a very real chance to make the Chase as a wild card. In fact, if Keselowski replaces Earnhardt or Stewart in the top 10, and no winless driver in the top 20 wins the race, the highest finisher among Menard, Marcos Ambrose and David Ragan would become a Chase wild card, provided he was in the top 20 in points after the Richmond race.

 There are a lot of drivers who wouldn’t mind seeing Earnhardt and Stewart falter—roughly a third of the field if you count all the Fords at Roush Fenway Racing and Richard Petty Motorsports, the two Penske Dodges and the four RCR cars.

 That makes Earnhardt and Stewart just as vulnerable as Keselowski.

 And given that Hamlin is a roadblock that could keep a handful of drivers out of the Chase, the No. 11 Toyota is a huge target, too.

 For argument’s sake, let’s say Hamlin is leading the race with 15 laps left, and Clint Bowyer is on his bumper. That’s not far-fetched; both have excellent records at Richmond. To make the Chase, Bowyer has to win the race and beat Hamlin by 12 points, if both Earnhardt and Stewart remain in the top 10 in the standings.

 So what does Bowyer do when he comes to that existential cliff? It does him no good to win the race if Hamlin runs second. So does he knock Hamlin into the wall and grab a Chase spot?

 After all, Bowyer and Hamlin have had their differences in the past, and Bowyer -- likely out of the No. 33 car at RCR at the end of the year -- is auditioning for a ride. A Chase spot wouldn’t hurt his market value.

 Bowyer isn’t the only driver who would like to see Hamlin fall flat. AJ Allmendinger, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr., Kahne and Joey Logano all must win the race and overtake Hamlin to gain a Chase spot.

 Accordingly, it would behoove Hamlin, Earnhardt, Stewart and Keselowski to know who their friends are and keep them close—and give a wide berth to those who have a lot to gain by driving them into the fence.